I’m kicking off the new MLB week with three prop picks for the 10-game slate.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Washington Nationals stud James Wood comes into Monday on fire and there’s big value on the 22-year-old to continue mashing. Oneil Cruz rakes with a platoon advantage and has one tonight.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for May 5, which includes a best bet on Seattle Mariners right-hander Bryce Miller.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Miller under 15.5 outs (-103)
Miller had minuscule walk rates in his first two seasons, but he’s been unable to find the zone this year.
Only two pitchers who have thrown at least 30 innings have a higher walk rate than Miller (14.7%), whose BB% was 5.7 from 2023-24.
The righty has walked multiple batters every start this season and nine over his last two outings.
He’s been able to limit damage via strikeouts and by keeping the ball in the yard, but Miller’s tightrope act is sure to lead to more blowups until he corrects his control.
Tonight’s matchup isn’t a great one for him.
- The Athletics have been a top 10 offence by wRC+.
- Their home stadium has been the second-most hitter-friendly venue, per Baseball Savant’s park factors.
- Seattle’s division rival has been walking at a respectable clip and striking out well-below average, sporting the fifth-lowest K rate in MLB.
The Mariners are off this Thursday and were off last Thursday. Since then, they got six-plus innings in back-to-back starts and only needed two relievers yesterday.
Their bullpen should start this series in good shape.
Key stat: Miller has gone under this line in four consecutive starts.
Best MLB picks
Cruz over 1.5 total bases (-125): The price is a bit steep, but this is a perfect matchup to target Cruz in.
He faces St. Louis Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas, an arm prone to contact who doesn’t miss bats.
Mikolas has 17 Ks over six starts. He has the top contact rate among pitchers over the last three seasons, meaning a well-above average number of balls are put in play against him.
Cruz ambushes right-handers, clobbering seven of his eight homers against them.
Check out Cruz’s MLB ranks, via FanGraphs, vs. RHPs:
- Hard-hit rate: 54.7% (1st)
- ISO: .338 (8th)
- OPS: 1.028 (11th)
Wood over 1.5 total bases (+132): The sophomore slugger has been tearing the cover off the ball but can still be had at big plus-money prices on this prop most nights.
Wood enters the day with nine homers and a .273/.381/.545 batting line.
He’s top 15 in the majors in home runs and OPS, producing well-above-average offence (157 wRC+) primarily out of the No. 2/3 spots in Washington’s lineup.
Wood has been particularly dangerous at home with a 1.027 OPS.
Wood’s Nationals host Luis Ortiz and the Cleveland Guardians, whose bullpen has thrown the third-most innings in MLB over the last two weeks.
Cleveland has played 10 days in a row, including a doubleheader, so fatigue is a concern with this group tonight.
MLB prop picks made at 12:58 p.m. ET on 05/05/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.