I’m targeting three hitters in Friday’s top MLB prop picks.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Freddie Freeman is as hot as any non-Aaron Judge player in the game and his total bases prop comes at a price too good to pass up. My other two plays look to take advantage of soft matchups.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for May 23, featuring predictions on Jeremy Pena and Josh Naylor.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Freeman over 1.5 total bases (+130)
New York Mets starter Griffin Canning has an elite groundball rate and enters tonight’s start against the powerful Los Angeles Dodgers with a stellar 2.47 ERA.
He has allowed two runs or fewer in eight of nine outings.
But his expected ERA is more than a full run higher, and his K and BB rates are in line with his career marks. His pitch repertoire is largely unchanged, too.
Canning had ERAs and FIPs north of 5.00 in two of the last three years, and there’s almost certainly some regression on the way.
The great start by New York’s righty has created excellent value on Freeman.
- Freeman is hitting .377/.438/.698 vs. RHPs.
- He leads the NL in batting average, slugging and wRC+.
The weather in New York isn’t expected to be a concern and, if anything, would aid hitters with wind blowing out to right field, Freeman’s pull side.
Citi Field skews more to a pitcher’s park, but it’s not nearly as extreme as other stadiums. Getting Freeman at this price is a steal.
Consider this: MVP teammate Shohei Ohtani is -152 to top 1.5 bases. Yet Freeman has cleared this mark more often than Ohtani this season (per Team Rankings).
Key stat: Freeman has topped 1.5 bases in 55.3% of his starts, the third-best mark in MLB.
Best MLB picks
Pena over 0.5 runs (-104): Pena’s going to need help, but he should put himself in a position to succeed.
The Houston Astros’ shortstop moved into the club’s leadoff spot on April 27 and hasn’t looked back. Since then, he’s done this:
- BA: .347
- OBP: .400
- SLG: .516
Pena has only crossed the plate 11 times in those 24 games, but he has a juicy matchup against the divisional rival Seattle Mariners.
Emerson Hancock gets the ball and has walked multiple batters in four of his last five starts, entering with a 6.21 ERA.
Among pitchers who have thrown at least 30 innings:
- Hancock has a top 15 HR/9 rate
- Top 10 highest WHIPs
Hancock lacks swing and miss ability and will likely be expected to provide some length after George Kirby lasted 3.2 innings in his season debut last night.
That should set Pena up for two to three plate appearances against the struggling righty.
Naylor over 0.5 RBI (+163): Let’s end with a bigger swing.
Naylor and the Arizona Diamondbacks get St. Louis Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas, who’s suppressing runs at his best rate in three years.
But Mikolas, never a big strikeout arm, is missing bats at a career-low rate and walking batters at a career-worst rate. A stat correction to his ERA is surely on the way.
- Mikolas has a 2.20 ERA in May, but he has benefited from facing three below-average offences (by wRC+) in the Pittsburgh Pirates, Kansas City Royals and Washington Nationals.
- Arizona is a clear step above them, ranking fourth by that metric and No. 1 in ISO vs. right-handers.
Naylor will hit behind some all-star bats in Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte, and he primarily does his damage against righties.
Since the start of 2024, the lefty-swinging power bat has hit 30 of his 36 homers vs. right-handers. And he has big lefty/righty career splits, which are on full display this season:
- Vs. RHP: .317/.389/.508
- Vs. LHP: .233/.281/.283
Left-handed hitters are batting .292 off Mikolas (RHBs: .171), and his OPS against is 250 points higher vs. LHBs.
MLB prop picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET on 05/23/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.