A healthy dose of the Subway Series makes its way into my MLB prop bets for Saturday.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Nolan Arenado is having an uncharacteristically poor season, but he should be able to take advantage of a plus matchup. Later on, I’m backing New York Mets sluggers Pete Alonso and Juan Soto to clear their total bases props.
Check out my MLB prop bets for May 18.
MLB prop bets
Best Bet: Arenado over 1.5 total bases (+130)
This isn’t the type of season people have come to expect from Arenado.
The Cardinals slugger’s .242 batting average and .379 OPS are the lowest marks of his career, and way below his career averages of .284 and .853, respectively.
If there’s anything that can get the third baseman going, though, it’s a date with Kansas City Royals pitcher Michael Wacha.
Wacha is enjoying a solid campaign, combining a 2.96 ERA with a 3.10 FIP. But he has struggled mightily in the past versus Arenado.
In 19 at-bats versus Wacha, Arenado is batting:
- .474 AVG
- 4 home runs
Those are undeniable numbers.
Key stat: No batter has more career home runs against the pitcher they’re facing today than Arenado.
Best MLB picks
Alonso over 1.5 total bases (+132): Here’s a hitter who’s not struggling at all this season.
Alonso is hitting for contact and power this year. He’s batting .308 with a .574 SLG, and the advanced numbers paint an even rosier picture:
- 98th percentile xwOBA (.432)
- 94th percentile xBA (.304)
- 98th percentile xSLG (.616)
Alonso is hitting the cover off the ball and should be able to do damage against Max Fried.
Fried combines a 1.11 ERA with a 2.85 FIP, but he has not been able to figure out Alonso. Here’s how the Mets slugger has fared across 36 at-bats:
- 10 hits
- 2 home runs
- .472 SLG
Alonso has cashed this wager in six of his last 14 games, including yesterday’s contest against the New York Yankees.
Soto over 1.5 total bases (+160): Soto didn’t have to move far, but there has been a bit of an adjustment period for the talented outfielder.
The superstar is slashing .252/.386/.454, which is well below his career averages across the board.
His play has been improving since the calendar flipped to May, as he’s batting .275 with two doubles and five home runs this month.
Like his teammate Alonso, Soto has done well for himself against Fried. Soto has a .333 batting average in 27 at-bats versus Fried.
The ex-Yankees star hits second for the Mets, too, which never hurts when backing someone in this market.
MLB prop picks made at 12:04 p.m. ET on 05/18/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.