Four players are featured in Friday’s best MLB prop picks.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Freddie Freeman is tearing the cover off the ball and I expect that to continue in a plus matchup vs. the Los Angeles Angels. I have other recommendations on two hot leadoff hitters, as well as one starting pitcher.
My favourite MLB prop bets for May 16 include plays on CJ Abrams, Josh Smith and Ranger Suarez.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Abrams over 1.5 total bases (+118)
Abrams is an obvious target against the Baltimore Orioles, who are starting left-hander Cade Povich.
The southpaw has been hammered this season and particularly obliterated at his hitter-friendly home park.
- 5.55 ERA (7.94 at home)
- 1.54 WHIP
- Below-average 18.4 K%
- Above-average 1.77 HR/9 rate
As for Abrams, he’s swinging a hot stick as the Washington Nationals’ leadoff man.
The switch-hitter fared better vs. lefties last season for the first time in three years. This season, he’s bashing all pitchers, slugging north of .540 against both left-handers and righties.
Overall, Abrams is batting .317 with a .926 OPS.
Abrams has routinely been topping this line and the former first-round pick appears poised for a breakout in his age-24 season.
Key stat: The shortstop has cleared 1.5 bases in seven of his last eight games, and at the second-highest rate in the National League (per Team Rankings).
Best MLB picks
Freeman over 1.5 bases (-107): This price feels like a steal with the way Freeman is swinging it right now.
- .440/.474/.780 in May with four home runs.
- That comes after an April in which he had a 1.031 OPS. On the season, his 1.132 OPS is second only to Aaron Judge.
- Freeman is hitting .389 and slugging .733 vs. right-handers and sees Angels RHP Jack Kochanowicz tonight.
Lefties have tattooed Kochanowicz, hitting .308/.379/.527. Six of the seven homers Kochanowicz has allowed have been to LHBs.
Following Kochanowicz will be an Angels bullpen that has the highest ERA (6.97) in MLB.
Smith over 0.5 runs (-112): The Texas Rangers’ utility man has been batting leadoff for much of the month, and he’s been delivering all season.
Smith is hitting .306 with an .833 OPS, numbers that are elevated against RHPs.
- BA: .323
- OBP: 394
- OPS: .910
- All 4 of his HRs
Smith’s Rangers host Lance McCullers Jr. and the division rival Houston Astros. McCullers, who hadn’t pitched since 2022, is making his third start of the season.
He has walked three batters in each start, allowing seven runs his last time out.
McCullers is understandably throwing with diminished velocity and his struggles to find the zone (which has plagued him before) make him hard to trust.
Smith has posted above-average walk rates throughout his four-year career. His ability to get on via his bat and eye sets him up well vs. McCullers.
On top of that, Smith has raked at home: .377/.441/.566.
Friday’s best MLB pitching prop
Suarez over 5.5 Ks (-114): The Philadelphia Phillies lefty missed all of April with back soreness following a career year in 2024. But he threw exceptionally well over four rehab assignments and now has two starts under his belt.
After getting lit up in his season debut against a tough Arizona Diamondbacks lineup, Suarez dominated the Cleveland Guardians his last time out.
He fanned six vs. Arizona and five against Cleveland, throwing 82 pitches both outings.
Assuming Suarez will be allowed to reach the 90-pitch range, this looks like an outing that he can work deep in and amass a good amount of strikeouts against a weak Pittsburgh Pirates lineup.
Pittsburgh has the third-highest K rate in MLB vs. southpaws, ranking 25th in wRC+.
MLB prop picks made at 1 p.m. ET on 05/16/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.