Jazz Chisholm highlights the top prop picks for MLB’s lighter Thursday slate.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Chisholm has been raking and will enjoy a platoon advantage, giving me confidence he’ll stay hot for the reeling New York Yankees, who are looking to avoid a four-game sweep to the Toronto Blue Jays.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 3, featuring predictions on Joe Adell and Jake Irvin.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Chisholm over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (-112)
The Yankees’ third baseman no doubt benefits from hitting at his home park (1.025 OPS at home, .578 on the road), but he’s been hammering the ball and slugs right-handed pitching.
At this gargantuan price, he’s a worthwhile play for me.
- Vs. RHPs: 13 of 14 HR, .563 SLG, .909 OPS
- Since June 1: 7 HR, .305/.380/.579
Chisholm has nine multi-hit contests over that 26-game stretch. He entered June (after missing all of May) with a .181 average and .714 OPS. Chisolm is up to .240 and .829, respectively.
The Yankees see righty Chris Bassitt, who was clobbered in his last start and surrendered a pair of bombs and four runs when he faced New York earlier this season.
Left-handed hitters are slugging nearly 100 points higher vs. Bassitt and are hitting him for a .287 average.
And it’s fair to wonder whether Toronto’s bullpen will be at its sharpest after the club used four high-leverage relievers each for an inning-plus last night after deploying five relief arms in both of the first two games of the series.
Key stat: Chisholm is 10-4 against this line over his last 14 games.
Best MLB picks
Irvin over 4.5 Ks (+105): Irvin’s K rate has tumbled this season, but the Washington Nationals righty has cleared this line in three straight outings.
He gets the Detroit Tigers, while a difficult matchup for any pitcher, who strike out at the fifth-highest K rate in MLB vs. right-handers.
Irvin will be at home, where he’s pitched significantly better this season (3.59 ERA vs. 5.79) — and he generally gives the Nationals innings.
The 28-year-old had a stretch earlier in the season where he worked into the sixth inning in nine straight outings. He’s 5-3 against this line over his last eight after starting the year on a 3-6 run.
Adell over 0.5 RBI (+155): It appears Adell, a 2017 first-round pick, is figuring things out.
The former top prospect struggled over parts of five seasons entering the year but heads into tonight two homers off the personal-best 20 he hit last year and has career-high marks in slugging (.494) and OPS (.811).
Adell has moved up to a run-producing spot in the Los Angeles Angels’ order, hitting behind a group of bats who can provide damage. And Adell is as hot as he’s been all season:
- OPS by month: April (.514), May (.836), June (1.038).
- .340/.421/.680 over a 13-game hit streak.
- Five homers & 12 RBI over that stretch.
The Angels get Atlanta Braves righty Bryce Elder, who had an 8.25 ERA over five June starts.
Elder allowed a season-high 10 runs and three homers in his last outing and is coming off a brutal 2024. The softer-throwing righty is not a big swing-and-miss arm and is susceptible to blow-ups.
MLB prop picks made at 12:05 p.m. ET on 07/03/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.