A starting pitcher and Seattle Mariners slugger Randy Arozarena highlight Monday’s top MLB prop picks.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Arozarena is scorching and lines up well again tonight, making the over on his total bases prop my best bet of the night. As for the pitcher, I’m looking to strike on a light line.
Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for July 28, featuring a prediction on Edward Cabrera.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Arozarena over 1.5 total bases (-108)
This is a great matchup for Arozarena, who has been providing the Mariners with big middle-of-the-order production.
He’s enjoying his best month of the season, has the platoon advantage, and is hitting at one of the game’s best offensive environments.
- Arozarena is slugging .659 with a .985 OPS this month. His 10 July homers are tied for second in MLB and he’s fifth in ISO.
- The Athletics will deploy southpaw J.P. Sears (5.61 ERA at home) and a bullpen that’s been battered. A’s relievers have the worst ERA in the American League.
- Sutter Health Park, the Athletics’ home stadium, has been MLB’s best offensive venue next to Coors Field, according to Baseball Savant.
Arozarena has fanned five times in eight career at-bats vs. Sears, but that sample doesn’t sway me. The veteran hitter has a career-best 136 wRC+ and does his best damage against left-handed pitching.
Key stat: Arozarena is hitting .292 and slugging .547 vs. LHPs.
Best MLB picks
Cabrera over 4.5 Ks (-125): The St. Louis Cardinals are among the game’s most difficult teams to retire on strikes, but Cabrera consistently clears this number.
The Miami Marlins righty has recorded five-plus strikeouts in 11 consecutive outings and is 14-3 against this line on the season.
He has a lifetime 9.9 K/9 rate and enters this outing with well-above average strikeout, whiff and chase rates.
Cabrera is worth a play against any team at a line this light.
MLB prop picks made at 12:00 p.m. ET on 07/28/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.