A fade on Arizona Diamondbacks starter Eduardo Rodriguez highlights Tuesday’s top MLB prop selections.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Rodriguez has been shaky and has a challenging matchup at home against the AL West-leading Houston Astros. He’s tough to count on tonight, but I am banking on production from two hot bats.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 22, featuring predictions on Corey Seager and Zach Neto.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Rodriguez under 5.5 strikeouts (-124)
Good luck figuring out which version of Rodriguez will show up.
The left-hander has been wildly inconsistent and runs into an Astros team that punishes the ball.
This looks like a terrible matchup for the 32-year-old veteran.
- The Astros are No. 2 in the majors in wRC+ vs. lefties.
- Houston is No. 8 in wRC+ over the last 30 days.
- Only six teams have a lower K rate vs. LHPs.
- Vs. LHPs, Houston ranks second in batting average and first in slugging.
If those trends continue, Rodriguez is staring down a short outing, limiting his ability to pile up strikeouts.
And we’ve seen plenty of short outings from him, as he’s failed to complete five innings in three of his last five starts.
While the strikeouts have been there — Rodriguez has three double-digit K games and his best strikeout rate since 2021 — he also has a 5.94 ERA, propelled by a career-high home run rate.
Key stat: Rodriguez has gone under this number in 10 of his 16 starts.
Best MLB picks
Seager over 1.5 total bases (+100): The Texas Rangers star has the luxury of facing J.T. Ginn and the Athletics’ terrible bullpen tonight.
Ginn’s likely looking at a few frames after pitching out of the bullpen since June, but that assures the Rangers’ No. 2 hitter one plate appearance against him at minimum.
And it will be a plus matchup with the platoon advantage. Ginn’s career numbers vs. lefty batters: .336/.402/.588.
Seager is batting a blistering .350/.451/.617 in July, clearing this number in 11 of 16 games.
He pounds righties (.875 OPS this year; .944 in 2024; 1.075 in 2023) and will see one of MLB’s worst bullpens following Ginn.
Athletics relievers sport the second-worst ERA (5.43) in baseball and the fourth-highest opponent’s batting average.
Neto over 0.5 runs (+114): I love this line for Neto, the Los Angeles Angels’ leadoff hitter who’s on a heater and tied for fourth in the AL in runs scored.
The Angels are smashing the ball (first in wRC+ the last 30 days), putting the 24-year-old in front of all of the club’s dangerous power bats.
- Neto has scored 19 runs in 17 games this month, crossing the plate in 11 different contests.
- Even more impressive: Shohei Ohtani is the only player in baseball to score in a greater percentage of his starts this season.
- Neto is batting .307 this month and getting on base at a .373 clip — his best marks of the season.
His Angels see the New York Mets’ Frankie Montas, who has made four starts, pitching well in two and awful in the others.
Montas will have his moments, but he’s far from a pitcher to shy away from on this plus-money offering.
MLB prop picks made at 1 p.m. ET on 07/22/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.