Paul Skenes makes his first start since the all-star break on Monday.
Today’s MLB props narrative: The righty has been dominant this season, posting a 2.01 ERA across 20 starts. He takes the mound against the Detroit Tigers later today. Just after that, look for Elly De La Cruz to continue doing damage with the bat.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 21, featuring a pick on Brandon Nimmo.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Nimmo to score (-120)
Nimmo usually hits leadoff, so getting on base will give him a good shot to score, and I think he can reach the base multiple times.
- Dating back to July 2, the outfielder has crossed home plate in 10 of 14 games.
- He’s batting .321 during that stretch with a .947 OPS.
Nimmo will see a lefty-on-lefty matchup on Monday with Tyler Anderson starting for the Los Angeles Angels.
But the leadoff man is almost as good against LHP as he is against righties:
- Vs. RHP: .263/.329/.478
- Vs. LHP: .259/.319/.426
Plus, he has a good history against Anderson.
Key stat: Nimmo is 8-for-15 (.533) in his career off the Angels starter.
Best MLB picks
Skenes over 6.5 Ks (-143): Before the all-star break, Skenes was showing signs of fatigue.
He worked five or fewer innings in four straight starts, falling short of this mark three times.
But the time off should do him wonders, and get him back to that Cy Young form we saw earlier this season.
Before that tough stretch, Skenes had seven or more Ks in nine of 16 starts.
His 9.7 K/9 still ranks among the best pitchers in the majors.
This is also a matchup Skenes can take advantage of. The Tigers average the seventh most strikeouts per game (8.71) in MLB.
And Skenes has owned their lineup in the past. Skenes has a 40.5% K rate against Detroit’s offence in 37 combined plate appearances.
De La Cruz over 1.5 bases (-120): The five-tool shortstop is quietly having a fantastic season.
He has a .281 average with a career-best .843 OPS coming into tonight’s matchup with Jake Irvin and the Washington Nationals.
In 11 career meetings with Irvin, De La Cruz has four hits with two going for extra bases.
Irvin’s xERA of 5.27 ranks in the 10th percentile, and his whiff rate of 17.4% ranks in the fourth percentile. That all works in favour of the free swinging De La Cruz.
The shortstop has cashed this wager in five of his last eight games.
MLB prop picks made at 11:26 a.m. ET on 07/21/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.