Two of my three MLB prop bets for Saturday come from the Boston Red Sox vs. San Diego Padres matchup.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Michael King returns to the majors after nearly three months on the shelf, and he’ll likely have a reduced pitch count tonight. King’s over/under strikeouts prop is reduced, too, and the over should be playable against the free-swinging Red Sox.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for Aug. 9, featuring predictions on Roman Anthony and Gleyber Torres.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Torres over 1.5 total bases (+125)
Torres and Angels starter Yusei Kikuchi have both spent a lot of time in the American League, and as a result, their paths have crossed several times.
Over the years, Torres has amassed a nice resume against Kikuchi: 12-for-30 (.400) with two homers, two doubles and just three strikeouts.
Detroit’s all-star middle infielder does his best work against left-handed pitching, so it’s no surprise he’s fared well vs. Kikuchi.
Among 159 qualified hitters, here’s where Torres ranks in some offensive categories vs. LHPs:
- 4th in K rate (6.9%)
- 12th in OBP (.397)
- 13th in wRC+ (156)
- 20th in SLG (.526)
Kikuchi is liable to issue some walks, and Torres is often content to accept a free pass, which poses a risk for this pick. But Torres hasn’t been patient lately, collecting just two walks over his past 16 games (3.0% walk rate).
What I’m buying here is pretty simple: A talented hitter with a platoon advantage who knows how to excel in this particular matchup.
Torres ranks in the 95th percentile in xBA (.297), per Baseball Savant, and his xSLG (.520) is miles ahead of his actual SLG (.421). When he puts the ball in play, good things tend to happen.
Key stat: Torres has homered in four of his past 10 games.
Best MLB picks
Anthony over 0.5 runs (+130): The left-hitting Anthony tends to bat leadoff when the Red Sox are facing a right-handed pitcher, and with that in mind, this pick screams value.
- Anthony has a .422 OBP vs. righties in 135 plate appearances, which equates to a 145 wRC+.
- The rookie’s walk rate vs. RHPs (15.6%) is nearly as high as his strikeout rate (18.5%).
- He has scored seven runs in his past nine games (5-4 vs. this prop in that span).
Padres righty Michael King has a 2.59 ERA through 10 starts this year, but he hasn’t pitched in the majors since mid-May. There’s no guarantee that he’ll spring back into elite form.
And either way, this is more about Anthony’s opportunity amid a glistening rookie campaign. His .440 OBP in the second half is the seventh-highest in MLB.
King over 5.5 Ks (+100): Though I like Anthony to score, King should still be able to rack up strikeouts against Boston.
- The Red Sox have the fifth-highest K rate against righties (23.0%).
- Against Boston’s active lineup, King has 14 Ks in 44 plate appearances (31.8 K%).
Given that King hasn’t made an MLB start since May — with just one rehab outing in between — he’ll very likely be on a pitch count.
He threw 61 pitches in a Triple-A start on Aug. 3, striking out five batters in just 3.1 innings. Hopefully, his pitch count will be up around 80 tonight.
King cashed this bet in six of his final seven MLB starts before getting hurt. And he averaged 6.9 Ks per game in that span.
Circumstances are a bit different now, but I think this trimmed-down line is playable for the talented righty.
MLB prop picks made at 10:05 a.m. ET on 08/09/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.