I’m backing a trio of multi-time all-stars in Monday’s MLB prop bets, and two of the predictions come in at plus money.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Luis Arraez is back to batting-title-calibre form, and tonight’s pitching matchup makes him a perfect candidate to collect multiple hits. Elsewhere, Max Fried should stymie a Texas Rangers lineup that has been terrible against southpaws this season.
Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Monday, Aug. 4, featuring William Contreras.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Arraez over 1.5 hits (+110)
It looks like the old Arraez is back. And that’s a very good thing.
Arraez, who was an all-star and a batting title winner in each of the past three seasons, is having a down year by his lofty standards.
But the soft-hitting, high-contact infielder has turned a corner recently and is now riding a hot streak.
Over his past 16 games, Arraez is 26-for-65 (.400) with nine multi-hit performances.
Amazingly, he only has four walks and one strikeout in that span. This is a guy who, more than anyone else in baseball, is determined to get his bat on the ball.
During this 16-game stretch, Arraez has a .355 xBA, per Baseball Savant, despite a feeble 15% hard-hit rate. He’s adept at hitting into soft spots in the defence — rather than bashing the ball all over the place — and he’s been doing it for years.
Tonight’s matchup should be a perfect one for Arraez. He’ll face Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt, who has been one of the very worst pitchers in baseball in 2025.
Among 357 qualified pitchers, Pfaadt ranks 354th in xBA (.309) and 353rd in xERA (6.29).
In Pfaadt’s three-year career, left-hitting players have a .284 BA against him. And Arraez has been among the most successful.
Key stat: Arraez is 10-for-19 (.526) with two doubles against Pfaadt.
Best MLB picks
Contreras over 0.5 runs (+105): This pick has some value to me based largely on the fact that Erick Fedde is on the mound for the Braves.
Fedde has been an absolute tire fire in the past month and a half. In his past eight starts, he has a 9.37 ERA, with 64 baserunners allowed in 32.2 innings.
Contreras has cashed this bet in six straight games, reaching base in 15 of 30 plate appearances in that span. He typically bats second or third for the Brewers.
Oh, and the standout catcher has excellent numbers vs. Fedde: 9-for-16 (.563) with two home runs, a double and two walks.
Fried over 5.5 Ks (-150): If you can stomach this heavily-juiced price, I think it’s worth a look on Monday night.
The left-hander is facing a Rangers squad that hasn’t been at its best since the all-star break:
- 23rd in K rate (24.9%)
- 26th in wRC+ (87)
- 27th in BA (.226)
Texas has also struggled against left-handed pitching all year, posting the fifth-highest K rate (25.2%) and the third-lowest wRC+ (76).
Fried, who fanned nine batters last time out, is 12-10 vs. this prop this season.
He also has 13 Ks in just 43 plate appearances against the Rangers’ active lineup (30.2 K%).
MLB prop picks made at 1:54 p.m. ET on 08/04/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.