Ready for some Sunday afternoon baseball? I’ve got MLB prop bets for a trio of games in the 4 p.m. ET window.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Despite some subpar results recently, Brendan Donovan is a value play on his runs prop in San Diego. Elsewhere, Jacob deGrom has a very playable strikeout line, and Shea Langeliers looks to stay red hot in a plus matchup.
Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Saturday, Aug. 3.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Donovan over 0.5 runs (+130)
Donovan hasn’t been great lately, but I can’t ignore this price for a leadoff hitter against a shaky starting pitcher.
San Diego’s Dylan Cease has a 5.81 ERA over his past six starts, with 45 baserunners allowed in 31.0 innings over that stretch.
Looking back even further, he has allowed at least three runs in 10 of his past 13 outings.
Donovan has a 92 wRC+ since the start of July, so again, it’s not great on his side of things. But he still has a fairly promising offensive profile overall.
- The infielder has a .353 on-base percentage this season, which ranks 43rd among 158 qualified hitters.
- According to Baseball Savant, Donovan has a .294 xBA (93rd percentile). He also rarely strikes out, posting a 13.1% K rate (91st percentile)
Against Cease, Donovan is 3-for-6 with a walk. Their most recent matchup was last August, when Donovan reached base twice and scored in three plate appearances vs. the right-hander.
From the top of the Cardinals’ lineup, Donovan should have the best chance to score against a struggling Cease.
It helps that there are plenty of bats behind Donovan who can drive him home.
Key stat: St. Louis’ lineup is collectively 16-for-42 (.381) with a .571 SLG vs. Cease.
Best MLB picks
deGrom over 6.5 Ks (-143): deGrom is having an awesome year despite the fact that his strikeout numbers are lower than we’re used to.
In 2025, deGrom’s K/9 is 9.5. That’s still strong, but it pales in comparison to his 10.8 K/9 for his career.
Still, I like this line for the fireballer righty who ranks in the 80th percentile or better in whiff rate, chase rate, xERA, strikeout rate and walk rate.
deGrom is 5-2 vs. this prop in his past seven starts, averaging 7.1 Ks per outing in that span.
Also, the Mariners have the sixth-highest strikeout rate since the all-star break (25.6%). And deGrom has garnered a 27.6 K% vs. Seattle’s active lineup in 76 plate appearances.
Langeliers over 1.5 total bases (-110): Starting catchers often get Sundays off, so there’s a risk that Langeliers doesn’t play today.
But I really hope he does — even just as a designated hitter, if needed — because he’s got a really juicy matchup.
- Over his past 15 games, Langeliers has a .407/.438/.864 slash line. He’s 10-5 vs. this prop in that span.
- Against left-handed pitchers this season, Langeliers is batting .407 with a 1.051 OPS in 59 plate appearances.
Arizona southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez has been coughing up hard contact to hitters on both sides of the plate, so a platoon advantage might not matter here.
Opponents have a .307/.362/.525 slash line off Rodriguez this season in 18 games.
That’s an .886 OPS, which is better than what guys like Bryce Harper, Kyle Tucker and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have compiled this year.
MLB prop picks made at 11:04 a.m. ET on 08/03/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.