I’m betting on three NL East hitters in Thursday’s best MLB prop picks.
Today’s MLB props narrative: I love the matchup for Michael Harris, who I’m backing two ways during a hot run for the Atlanta Braves’ left-handed hitter.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for Aug. 28, featuring predictions on J.T. Realmuto and Jakob Marsee.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Harris over 1.5 total bases (+115) & 1+ RBI (+190)
Harris is sitting on a sub-.700 OPS as a result of an abysmal start, but take a look at how he’s turned things around.
- Since July 1, a span of 49 games, Harris is batting .311 and slugging .571.
- The outfielder has hit 11 of his 17 homers since the all-star break and has a top-10 ISO (.303) over that stretch (it was .107 in the first half).
He’s generally slotted in the No. 4-6 range in Atlanta’s lineup, a good run-producing spot behind some strong hitters.
I especially like that lineup placement against struggling Philadelphia Phillies righty Aaron Nola at a good venue for hitters, Citizens Bank Park, with the wind expected to be blowing out.
Nola (6.52 ERA, 1.53 WHIP) has been hurt, limiting him to 11 starts, and has not been effective when he’s been on the mound.
The Braves have seen him plenty over the years, and opponents are batting .322 off him at home. On the season, left-handed hitters have compiled a .908 OPS.
Behind Nola is a Phillies bullpen that has struggled all year.
Key stat: Harris is slugging .600 off Nola in 32 career plate appearances.
Best MLB picks
Realmuto 1+ RBI (+132): If I expect Nola to struggle at Citizens Bank Park, you’d better believe I feel the same about his counterpart, Cal Quantrill (5.51 ERA).
The Braves righty is a below-average arm by nearly every meaningful metric, struggles to get pitches by hitters, and has to contend with a top-10 offence in baseball.
Realmuto is having a productive August (.273/.341/.455) and has hit cleanup every game this month. Assuming that holds true tonight, he’ll be slotted behind Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper.
I’d expect that trio to do damage. But I’m not in love with several of their player prop prices, so this is a roundabout way to bet on them — and Realmuto, who’s in a great lineup spot — at plus money.
And if the Phillies’ bullpen has been bad, Atlanta’s has been horrific. The group’s 5.13 second-half ERA is the third-highest mark in MLB.
If you’re looking for another Phillies target, Avery Perri is betting on Turner to go deep tonight.
Marsee over 1.5 total bases (+170) & 1+ RBI (+245): I’m taking the same approach here as I did with Harris. While I don’t love the matchup the same way, these prices are robust.
The Miami Marlins rookie is obliterating the ball, and the forecast is calling for favourable hitting conditions at Citi Field in New York tonight.
- Marsee made his MLB debut this month and is hitting .356/.422/.667.
- His 1.088 OPS in August is the third-best mark in MLB.
- He’s driven in 24 runs in 26 games.
The Marlins get Clay Holmes, who has been solid but unspectacular. At these prices and with a platoon advantage, the only way I wouldn’t touch Marsee is against a stud.
Marsee, who has been hitting No. 2 or 3 for the last week, has cleared 1.5 bases seven times in his last 10 games.
MLB prop picks made at 12:15 p.m. ET on 08/28/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.