Andrew Abbott is having a sneakily stellar year, and he headlines Saturday’s MLB prop bets.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Abbott is flirting with an ERA title for the Cincinnati Reds, and he’s not shying away from healthy innings totals in most of his starts. In other matchups, I expect Dylan Crews to continue his modest resurgence and for Jeffrey Springs to cash in against the free-swinging Seattle Mariners.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for Aug. 23.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Crews over 0.5 hits (-167)
Crews hasn’t come anywhere near living up to the hype that made him the No. 2 draft pick in 2023, but he’s still only 23 years old. And things have been better lately.
In his past 13 games, Crews is 12-for-41 (.293) with a .969 OPS. He’s 9-4 vs. this prop in that span.
Aaron Nola will start for the Phillies in what has been a brutal year for the front-of-rotation arm.
Nola — an LSU product just like Crews, albeit nearly a decade apart — has a 6.92 ERA and a .308 opponent BA in 10 starts.
Last week, Nola got shelled by this Nationals squad (2.1 IP, seven hits, six runs), and Crews was in on the fun. Crews hit a two-run double off Nola and scored in the next at-bat, chasing Nola from the game.
It’s confounding to see these struggles from Nola, whose career 3.80 ERA is more than three full runs below this year’s mark. His career 8.0 H/9 is more than three full hits below this year’s mark (11.4), too.
Some positive regression would make sense, but probably not as much as you’d think. According to Baseball Savant, Nola ranks in the 12th percentile in xERA (5.17) and the seventh percentile in xBA (.289).
In righty-on-righty matchups, Nola’s primary pitch is his sinker. Crews is 11-for-37 (.297) against sinkers from RHPs this year.
Key stat: Crews is 4-for-7 with a double and a triple vs. Nola.
Best MLB picks
Abbott over 17.5 outs (-150): After deploying seven relievers last night, the Reds could really use some length from Abbott on Saturday.
It’s not a truly dire situation given that Cincy was off Thursday, but still. The Reds have a massive series against the Dodgers that begins Monday, and it’d be best not to tax the bullpen again before then.
Abbott has been an effective innings eater this year, and I think he’s worth the fairly steep price on this market.
- The left-hander has pitched into the sixth or deeper in seven straight outings. He’s 6-1 vs. this prop in that span, averaging 19.9 outs per game.
- Abbott’s 2.28 ERA is second-lowest in the NL among qualified pitchers — behind only Paul Skenes (2.16).
- He has thrown 95+ pitches in 12 of 22 starts. The Reds don’t mind giving the 26-year-old a long leash.
Springs over 5.5 Ks (+110): After highlighting a pair of juiced-up props, let’s finish with something in plus-money territory.
Tonight marks Springs’ fourth outing of the season against the Mariners, and the first three went quite well:
- 17.0 innings
- 10 hits
- 3 runs
- 20 Ks
- 2-1 vs. this prop
Springs doesn’t have overwhelming stuff by any means, but this is a Grade-A matchup.
Seattle has the second-highest K rate vs. left-handed pitchers (26.1%), as well as the second-highest overall K rate since the all-star break (26.2%).
The best putaway pitch in Springs’ arsenal is his changeup. Seattle has the fifth-highest K rate and the eighth-highest whiff rate against changeups from LHPs.
MLB prop picks made at 12:05 p.m. ET on 08/23/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.