Two starting pitchers and Jackson Holliday headline Tuesday’s best MLB prop picks.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Holliday is scuffling but has a great matchup against Walker Buehler and the Boston Red Sox. I expect him to contribute at the top of the lineup for his last-place Baltimore Orioles.
Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Aug. 19, featuring a best bet on Tanner Bibee and a prediction on Jacob Lopez.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Bibee under 17.5 outs (-129)
The Arizona Diamondbacks’ lineup was left with two massive holes after unloading power bats Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor at the trade deadline, but the group has still been competent.
- Arizona has above-average offence in the second half, sporting a 104 wRC+.
- The Diamondbacks have a top-10 slugging mark over that stretch and are 10th in batting average.
Any lineup featuring Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte near the top has big potential on any given night (both are top 15 in wRC+ this season), especially in Arizona.
Chase Field is one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball, making this a tough venue for Bibee to put a rough stretch behind him.
Cleveland has been asking a lot out of its bullpen of late, but Bibee simply hasn’t been delivering.
The right-hander has allowed four-plus runs in seven of his last eight starts. He has a 6.00 ERA over that span.
Bibee’s homer rate has spiked this season, and his K rate has plummeted to a below-league-average number. He hasn’t cleared this line with any sort of consistency this season and is a strong fade candidate at this price.
Key stat: Bibee is 10-14 vs. this line, topping it once since the start of July.
Best MLB picks
Lopez over 5.5 strikeouts (-120): The Athletics left-hander is impossible to ignore at this number.
In the second half, the Minnesota Twins have been a below-average offence with an above-average strikeout rate and they’ve struggled to hit southpaws all season.
Not only are those conditions favourable to Lopez, but he comes in on fire.
- The 24-year-old hasn’t allowed a run in his last four starts.
- He has gone seven-plus innings in consecutive outings. He struck out nine batters in his last start and 10 in the one before that.
Lopez has been limited to 84.2 innings but has been one of the game’s best strikeout artists (87th percentile K rate).
Only eight pitchers who have thrown 80-plus innings have a greater K rate than his 28.9% mark.
Holliday over 0.5 runs (-105): Let’s get this out of the way: Holliday is batting .161 with a .504 OPS this month.
But the second baseman is firmly entrenched as the club’s leadoff man and will bat at a great hitter’s park against a pitcher I don’t trust.
Buehler (5.43 ERA) has been better since July, but still walks way too many, doesn’t strike out enough batters, and has been clobbered by lefties.
Left-handed batters are hitting .317/.402/.458 off Buehler. Holliday will have a platoon advantage and has fared much better vs. righties (.734 OPS vs. .585).
Despite his struggles, Holliday has reached base safely in nine straight, scoring in five consecutive games.
MLB prop picks made at 12:55 p.m. ET on 08/19/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.