Logan Gilbert, one of the best strikeout arms in the majors this season, is on the mound Monday night against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Gilbert should continue rolling against a lineup he has baffled in the past, while Steven Kwan has been scoring at a clip that can’t be ignored. Elsewhere, Gavin Lux is a good bet to go hitless against a wild pitcher.
Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Aug. 18.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Lux under 0.5 hits (+125)
This might seem like a questionable pick for a guy who’s batting .300 in his past 20 games, but I think taking a flier on this fade makes sense.
Victor Mederos gets the ball for a second consecutive turn in the Angels’ rotation, and his sky-high walk rate means Lux has a good chance of reaching via walk.
- Lux has an 11.0% walk rate this season, which ranks in the 77th percentile, per Baseball Savant.
- Mederos has issued seven walks in 8.0 innings at the MLB level this season. Across all pro levels, he has 44 walks in 111.0 innings, which equates to a 3.57 BB/9.
- For context, Mederos’ 3.57 BB/9 would be the 10th-highest BB/9 in the majors among qualified arms.
Lux is a severe splits guy who has a much higher 2025 batting average against right-handed pitchers (.295) than against lefties (.184). So once Mederos is lifted from the game, Lux will be an obvious pinch-hit candidate if the Angels turn to a lefty in the bullpen.
Over his past 20 games, Lux has only played a full game five times.
Lux has a .280 BA on the season, but his .254 xBA (42nd percentile) suggests it hasn’t been properly earned.
Key stat: Lux is hitless in 38 of 98 starts (38.8%). That’s a similar implied probability to this prop (41.7%).
Best MLB picks
Kwan over 0.5 runs (-108): Kwan really hasn’t been very productive lately, but he’s been exceptionally timely as a run scorer.
Over his past 28 games, Kwan has a .256/.321/.376 slash line. But he has 24 runs in that span, going 19-9 vs. this prop.
I’m sure there’s a hearty portion of luck at play here, but the end results make this plus-money price tag enticing to me.
Though it wasn’t confirmed at the time of this writing, Zac Gallen (9-12, 5.31 ERA) is the Diamondbacks’ projected starter. If that happens, it’ll be great news for this play.
Kwan is 4-for-9 with a double, a triple and a walk vs. Gallen.
Gilbert over 6.5 Ks (-106): Limited interleague play means Gilbert doesn’t see the Phillies very often. But when he does, he tends to dominate.
In 80 plate appearances against the Phillies’ active lineup, Gilbert’s numbers look like this:
- .205 opponent BA
- .321 opponent SLG
- 32.5 K%
- 2.5 BB%
Gilbert has always been solid as a strikeout producer, but he’s in an elite tier this season. His 12.45 K/9 is the highest among 127 pitchers with 80-plus innings.
The right-hander has averaged 7.3 Ks per start this season, and he’s catching the Phillies at a good time.
Over the past month, Philadelphia has had the sixth-highest K rate (23.1%).
MLB prop picks made at 4 p.m. ET on 08/18/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.