I’m fading two starting pitchers as part of my top MLB prop pick recommendations for Friday’s baseball slate.
Today’s MLB props narrative: I don’t like the matchups for Clayton Kershaw or Brandon Pfaadt tonight and am not expecting either to deliver length.
Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Aug. 15, featuring a prediction on Matt Chapman.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Kershaw under 15.5 outs (-103)
Kershaw’s underlying stats don’t match his 6-2 record and 3.14 ERA. And he runs into a dangerous San Diego Padres club, which has taken over first place in the NL West.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have their big dogs lined up after this: Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are scheduled to start the next three games.
They were off yesterday, giving their bullpen a breather following heavy workload in their shocking sweep to the Angels.
The Toronto Blue Jays had Kershaw on the ropes in his last start but he escaped with one run allowed over six innings, marking the second consecutive start he recorded 18 outs.
Kershaw doesn’t miss bats, isn’t getting hitters to chase and generally pitches in the zone. It leads to plenty of opportunities to put the ball in play.
- The Padres are fourth in the majors in contact rate, per FanGraphs.
- They get punched out at the lowest clip in the NL.
- The club is third in MLB in wRC+ in the second half.
I don’t like this matchup for Kershaw at all.
Key stat: Kershaw is sporting his highest hard-hit rate since Statcast started tracking in 2015.
Best MLB picks
Pfaadt under 17.5 outs (-125): I’m rolling with another under on an outs prop in what should be a difficult number for Pfaadt to hit.
- The Arizona Diamondbacks are at Coors Field, the No. 1 offensive environment in MLB.
- They should have some rested bullpen arms after Eduardo Rodriguez gave them seven innings yesterday.
- Pfaadt is 10-14 vs. this number in 2025 despite clearing it in five of his first six outings.
- He has failed to record 18 outs in four consecutive starts and 11 times in his last 14 trips to the mound.
A pair of those unders came against these Colorado Rockies, too.
Pdaadt is struggling this year. He’s been plagued by the long ball, his K rate is down and he enters tonight’s start with a 5.03 ERA.
Top MLB hitting prop
Chapman over 0.5 RBI (+210): Tampa Bay Rays starter Joe Boyle has been an extreme fly-ball pitcher this season and the conditions don’t set up favourably for him, even in a good pitcher’s park.
The 26-year-old’s fly-ball rate is 2% more than the qualified MLB leader, and wind is expected to be blowing out heavily at Oracle Park in San Francisco tonight.
Boyle served up three bombs in his last start and has severely struggled with control over the last two seasons.
The Giants have walked at the second-highest clip vs. righties this season, so I’m expecting them to put baserunners on against Boyle.
Based on the weather outlook and Boyle’s fly-ball tendencies, I’m looking for a Giant who has pop and puts the ball in the air. That provides a greater chance at a home run or even a sacrifice fly to help cash this bet.
There aren’t perfect options, as this isn’t a great-hitting club. But Chapman fits the criteria I’m looking for and comes at a big number.
- Chapman is a middle-of-the-order bat who has a team-high-tying 13 RBI since the all-star break.
- The third baseman leads the club in slugging and sports an above-average fly-ball rate.
- He has gone yard 16 times this season, 15 of them vs. righties.
MLB prop picks made at 11:45 a.m. ET on 08/15/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.