New York Mets stars Pete Alonso and Juan Soto highlight today’s top MLB prop pick recommendations.
Today’s MLB props narrative: The Mets have a plus matchup against Atlanta Braves right-hander Bryce Elder and I expect the two sluggers from the Big Apple to do damage.
Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Aug. 14, featuring a prediction on Brenton Doyle.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Alonso over 1.5 total bases (+104)
I played Alonso on this prop last night in a matchup vs. Braves starter Carlos Carrasco and he delivered.
Alonso went 3-for-4 with two RBI in a game that the top of the Mets’ lineup produced, despite an 11-6 loss.
I’m back on the Alonso train again and adding Soto to the mix.
New York coughed up what should have been a cakewalk win, hammering Carrasco for six runs and six hits before blowing a 6-0 lead.
But the Mets have another favourable outlook and a chance at redemption against Elder on Thursday. And Alonso is a man worth targeting right now.
- He’s slugging .556 vs. right-handed pitching and is batting a career-high .272 on the season.
- Alonso has been especially lethal in August, hitting an absurd .386/.408/.886, good for a 1.295 OPS. He’s gone deep six times in 11 games.
Elder has a 6.12 ERA and a whopping 1.62 HR/9 rate. It’s basically what he turned in last year, too, following a strong 2023. The righty posted a 6.52 ERA and a 1.45 HR/9 rate in 2024.
His last 150 innings have been dreadful, and he has allowed five-plus runs in four of his last eight outings.
New York should hit him hard tonight.
Key stat: Alonso has cashed this in four straight and is 7-4 vs. this line in August.
Best MLB picks
Soto over 1.5 total bases (+110): We know Elder is a plus matchup for opposing hitters. And after Carassco lasted two innings, following a brief four-inning start from Spencer Strider the night before, Elder might have to eat some innings.
That’s great — more looks at an unimposing arm with no swing and miss and below-average metrics across the board sounds appealing. And whenever the Braves bullpen enters, there will be a lot to like there as well.
Atlanta’s bullpen has been worked heavily in the second half, throwing the fifth-most innings and logging the fifth-highest ERA (5.47).
Soto has underwhelmed this season and walks a lot, hurting him on this market, but he has elite batted-ball stats and serious power.
- The star outfielder has gone deep four times this month and is slugging .558 in August.
- He capitalizes on the platoon advantage and punishes righties: 23 of his 29 homers, .547 slugging, .950 OPS.
- Soto has at least one hit in all but one game this month, cashing this prop in six of his last eight contests.
Doyle over 1.5 total bases (+104): Doyle has disappointed following a near-4.0 WAR (FanGraphs) season in 2024, but I like his chances tonight.
The reasons are simple: He’s facing a lefty and will be at home.
Doyle is batting a measly .231/.279/.360, but take a look at his numbers vs. southpaws and when he’s at Coors Field, the top-offensive environment in MLB.
- Vs. LHP: .326/.390/.526
- At home: .309/.344/.509
Doyle and the Rockies get Arizona Diamondbacks lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, who has a 5.68 ERA and was tattooed at home by Colorado in his last start.
Opponents are batting .306 against Rodriguez, who has the highest HR/9 rate of his career.
MLB prop picks made at 10:50 a.m. ET on 08/14/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.