Toronto Blue Jays slugger Daulton Varsho and two starting pitchers are featured in Tuesday’s top MLB prop picks.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Varsho has pounded righties and finds himself in a favourable situation tonight as the Blue Jays begin a three-game set against the Chicago Cubs.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for Aug. 12, featuring predictions on Spencer Strider and Robbie Ray.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Varsho over 1.5 total bases (+148) & 1+ RBI (+160)
I’m double-dipping on Varsho at these plus-money payouts. He has big power and can cash both props with a bomb.
The Blue Jays are back at home and facing a right-hander with a 6.04 ERA. These are the times when Varsho is a Grade-A target.
- Toronto ranks first in MLB in average and second in wRC+, with its best production coming at home. Rogers Centre has been a top-10 park for offence this season and top five for homers, per Baseball Savant.
- Cubs starter Ben Brown has been hammered by the long ball this season and has allowed five-plus runs in seven of 19 appearances. Left-handed batters are hitting .299 off him with an .899 OPS.
- Varsho is punishing righties. He’s missed significant time, so we’re only working with a 90 at-bat sample, but the numbers are impressive: all 11 of his homers and slugging .700.
The Blue Jays outfielder is hitting .333/.448/.750 in August. Even if he’s slotted in the lower-third of the lineup, that would still put him behind the club’s best bats: Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Addison Barger.
I’m confident Varsho will come up with runners on base, putting himself in a position to drive runners in.
Key stat: Varsho has cleared 1.5 bases in 47% of his starts. That would be good for a top-20 mark in MLB if qualified.
Best MLB picks
Ray over 5.5 Ks (+117): Only the Blue Jays have a lower K rate than the San Diego Padres, who are sixth in wRC+ in the second half, leading to this light line for the left-handed strikeout artist.
But getting Ray at plus money on a 5.5 line is nearly unheard of, and it’s enough for me to bite.
- Ray punches out batters at a well-above-average rate, outperforming three-quarters of pitchers in K rate and whiff rate.
- He’s 15-9 against this line on the season and fanned nine Padres when he faced them in June.
The San Francisco Giants’ southpaw will be at his pitcher-friendly home park (2.58 ERA in 12 outings) and generally works deep.
It’s a tough matchup for Ray, but a highly valuable play.
Strider over 6.5 Ks (-113): The bad news: Strider’s K rate is way down from his peak, as is his velocity. And he’s walking too many batters after missing nearly all of 2024 following Tommy John surgery.
But there’s good news ahead of tonight’s start vs. the New York Mets, and it’s this:
- Strider is still missing bats at a near-elite level. He’s in the 85th percentile with a 28.0 K% that ranks 13th among starters (minimum 80 innings).
- The righty has a near-90th percentile whiff rate with upside, evidenced by a pair of double-digit strikeout games this season.
And the Braves are letting him routinely hit the 100-pitch mark. If the walks are down and he’s able to contain New York’s offence, he should be able to get the sixth inning.
With the amount of K opportunities that would create for Strider, I’ll take my chances with him at this number every time.
The Mets have an elevated K rate in the second half (12th in MLB), and Strider has 16 Ks against them in two starts, clearing this number both times.
MLB prop picks made at 10:45 a.m. ET on 08/12/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.