I’m kicking off the new week with MLB prop picks on two starting pitchers and Athletics slugger Brent Rooker.
The pregame narrative: Bryce Elder and Nick Martinez are both struggling ahead of their starts and I expect that trend to continue. As for Rooker, he mashes lefties and gets a super hittable one tonight.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for Monday, April 28.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Rooker over 1.5 total bases (-130)
A juicy matchup and a reasonable price make Rooker a no-brainer play.
The Athletics face Texas Rangers starter Patrick Corbin, a left-handed arm who has been hit as hard as any pitcher over the last several years.
Rooker makes his living punishing lefties and has upper-tier pop.
Corbin has a respectable 3.77 ERA through three starts, but don’t be fooled: His expected ERA is more than a full run higher, and his FIP is an unsightly 5.42.
The southpaw doesn’t miss enough bats, walks too many batters and his 5.71 ERA from 2021-24 was the highest mark among qualified starters.
Corbin generally works deep and has gone five-plus innings in his last two starts. That’s a plus here, as that length would give Rooker at least a couple of cracks at him.
Rooker enters the day batting .308/.379/.692 against lefties. His OPS vs. LHPs over the last few seasons:
- 2025: 1.072
- 2024: .949
- 2023: .874
The Athletics DH is 10th in ISO vs. southpaws over that stretch.
Key stat: Rooker has topped 1.5 bases in 59.3% of his starts, per Team Rankings. That’s third in MLB behind Aaron Judge and Corbin Carroll.
Best MLB picks
Elder under 4.5 Ks (-118): Elder gets hit often, doesn’t miss bats and he’s at Coors Field tonight.
I debated whether to fade Elder on his outs or strikeout prop, but I’ve elected to go this route despite the Colorado Rockies having big swing-and-miss tendencies through the first month.
You could talk yourself into Elder based on the fact that the Rockies have a 67 wRC+ vs. righties and the highest K rate in MLB.
And despite some added power from playing at Coors, their lineup hasn’t performed well at home.
But I’ve talked myself out of Elder for these reasons:
- He’s in the bottom 10th percentile among starters in strikeout and whiff rate.
- Elder has worked 6.0 innings twice in four starts but hasn’t topped four Ks this season.
- Only eight pitchers among 138 who have thrown 20+ innings have a lower K% than Elder (13.0).
- Elder is posting a career-low K rate and has been below league average in all four seasons.
- He has a 5.57 ERA, a season after posting a mark of 6.52.
Martinez under 17.5 outs (-125): The Cincinnati Reds right-hander is 0-4 against this line since working 6.0 innings in his season-opening start.
He’s at home tonight at the unforgiving Great American Ball Park.
Martinez has surrendered four runs in both home outings, and his ERA was nearly two full runs higher at home last season (4.00 vs. 2.18).
The St. Louis Cardinals have had an above-average offence vs. righties (108 wRC+), are top 10 in walk rate and only two teams have struck out at a lower rate.
Cincinnati got 13 innings out of its starters the last two days and was off Thursday, so bullpen fatigue shouldn’t be a big concern here.
This is not the matchup to expect a deep outing from Martinez (5.40 ERA).
MLB prop picks made at 12:01 p.m. ET on 04/28/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.