Two starting pitchers and Dylan Crews make up Thursday’s top MLB prop picks.
The pregame narrative: Crews is getting hot and worth a play in a plus matchup. As for the SPs, I’m fading Corbin Burnes and backing Tyler Anderson.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 24.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Burnes under 5.5 Ks (-143)
The right-hander’s strikeout rate dropped off last season and it’s taken an even sharper dive through the first month of the season.
Burnes isn’t far removed from a league-best 243 Ks in 2022, but he does seem far removed from being able to produce punchouts at that rate.
His K% since that career-best mark isn’t pretty:
- 2022: 30.5%
- 2023: 25.5%
- 2024: 23.1%
- 2025: 18.5%
There’s time for the 30-year-old to turn things around, as he did in the final month last season, but this trend is far from encouraging.
Through four starts, 70% of the league has a better K rate than him, and 80% are producing more whiffs, per Baseball Savant.
Tonight’s matchup is a tough one for Burnes, too.
The Tampa Bay Rays have struck out at a below-average rate versus right-handers, and they are punishing them.
Only two teams have been better offensively against righties, per FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric, and the Rays’ .275 batting average vs. RHPs is tops in MLB.
Key stat: Burnes punched out eight in his season debut, but has recorded exactly three strikeouts in each of his three starts since.
Best MLB picks
Anderson over 17.5 outs (-106): The Los Angeles Angels southpaw has a favourable matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Anderson has allowed no runs with back-to-back six-strikeout performances over his last two starts. Taking him to get six again is enticing as a plus-money play against a team that struggles vs. LHPs.
But taking the over on his outs prop is the way I’m going. Anderson is 1-3 against this line, but his two longest outings have come in his last two starts.
He cleared this in just over 50% of his outings in 2024 (he topped 5.5 Ks in 26%, for context), and the Pirates rank last in the NL in ISO.
Only five teams have been worse offensively vs. lefties, per wRC+, and Pittsburgh is near the bottom in walk rate.
That’s especially important as Anderson has walked multiple batters in all four starts.
Crews over 1.5 total bases (+112): Things are finally moving in the right direction for Crews.
The 2023 No. 2 overall pick and consensus top-end prospect got his first taste of the bigs last season and enters tonight as a .209/.264/.342 hitter over 52 MLB games.
He went hitless in his first five games this year and was slugging .106 just 10 days ago. While still rough, it’s up to .325 now.
Crews has hit safely in eight straight, batting .333/.355/.667 with three home runs over that stretch.
With a platoon advantage, he’ll see a juicy matchup when his Washington Nationals take on Cade Povich and the Baltimore Orioles.
Right-handers are hitting .397/.453/.632 vs. the southpaw, who has allowed 30 hits in four starts and sports a 6.38 ERA.
Povich’s splits weren’t as pronounced in his rookie 2024 year, but his OPS was still 100+ points higher vs. RHBs.
MLB prop picks made at 1:30 p.m. ET on 04/24/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.