It’s another doubleheader of postseason baseball tonight.
The pregame narrative: Michael King is coming off a dominant playoff performance and I expect him to thrive in Game 3. I also have plays on Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr., as well as New York Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo.
Check out the best MLB playoff prop bets for Oct. 8.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: King over 5.5 Ks (+102)
King carved up the Atlanta Braves in the wild-card series, working seven innings and striking out 12.
The San Diego Padres right-hander has been one of the best pitchers in the majors this season and his swing-and-miss ability is a big reason why.
King had 15 swinging strikes in that 12-punchout game, matching a season high. He faced the Los Angeles Dodgers four times this year, posting a 3.10 ERA and producing double-digit whiffs twice — including a whopping 17 in May.
He only cleared this number once, but one of those outings was a relief role during the Seoul Series in March.
King still managed a 10.2 K/9 rate versus Los Angeles, propped up by that May outing against a near-identical lineup he’ll see at home tonight.
The first-year Padre had a sensational 32.5 K% in 14 starts at Petco Park compared to a 23.5% mark on the road, propelling him to a top-10 strikeout rate in MLB.
Even in what could be a shorter outing in a high-stakes game with the series tied, King has provided more reasons than not to trust him against this number.
Key stat: King had six-plus strikeouts in 21 of his 30 starts.
Quick picks
Merrill over 0.5 RBI (+165) & Tatis over 1.5 bases (-117): I’m all aboard the fade Walker Buehler train tonight.
Los Angeles’ Game 3 starter had a miserable season (5.54 FIP, career-low K rate) and cannot be trusted.
Buehler faced the Padres twice this year, recording three strikeouts and allowing 10 hits over 8.1 innings. His lowest whiff total of the campaign came against the Padres in his last start of the season.
As a team, the Padres had the lowest strikeout rate in the majors. They are going to put the ball in play and should cash in against Buehler. That likely leads to a long night for Los Angeles’ bullpen, which San Diego tagged for eight hits and five runs in Game 2.
Merrill is hitting .429/.500/.857 in the playoffs and hits fifth behind some dangerous bats with good on-base skills. The rookie batted .311 with an .891 OPS versus righties in the regular season.
Tatis has been even better in the postseason, hitting an insane .643/.722/1.429 with three homers. He has cleared 1.5 total bases in all four of his games.
Over 29 career plate appearances against Buehler, Tatis has taken him deep four times and is slugging .724.
Phillies vs. Mets prop pick
Nimmo over 0.5 runs (+143): The left fielder has been terrific in October, scoring in four of five games while hitting .333 with a .391 OBP.
Nimmo’s ability to get on base is appealing, though I do think he has value on his RBI and total bases props, too.
The left fielder also has pop, going deep once this postseason and 23 times during the regular season.
Nimmo has seen Philadelphia Phillies starter Aaron Nola plenty, getting on base 25 times in 64 career plate appearances (.391 OBP).
New York is averaging a robust 5.4 runs per game in the playoffs.
Picks made at 11:48 a.m. ET on 10/08/2024.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.