Both MLB playoff series are in action again on Friday.
The pregame narrative: I’m targeting the starting pitchers in the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers game, and I also have a play on Yankees second baseman Gleyber Torres.
Check out the best MLB playoff prop bets for October 18.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Jack Flaherty over 16.5 outs (-107)
If anyone is going to eat innings for the Dodgers this postseason, it’s Flaherty.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto has yet to crack 75 pitches in three postseason starts and Walker Buehler is unlikely to go through an order for a third time.
Those three are the only conventional starters the Dodgers have used during the playoffs.
Flaherty worked 5.1 innings against the San Diego Padres in the NLDS and threw seven scoreless in a superb Game 1 NLCS outing.
The right-hander will be on normal rest as the Dodgers look to punch their ticket to the World Series.
Los Angeles will likely be down at least one key reliever in Blake Treinen. He threw 23 pitches last night and has pitched in back-to-back days.
Beyond any usage concerns with the bullpen, Flaherty has been excellent this season, finishing with a 3.17 ERA and near-career-best 3.48 FIP.
He hasn’t been as dominant since joining Los Angeles, but he still put together his best season in years. Much of that can be attributed to a career-low walk rate and career-best K rate, helping offset his struggles with the long ball.
Key stat: Flaherty is 8-4 against this line in 12 starts (playoffs included) since joining the Dodgers.
Quick picks
David Peterson under 3.5 Ks (-132): Game 5 will mark Peterson’s first postseason start.
He has made four relief appearances, throwing no more than 50 pitches. His last start came three weeks ago on the final Sunday of the regular season.
The margin for error is extremely small in an elimination game and the Mets have Kodai Senga available in relief. Whether that’s a good thing remains to be seen, but we’ll almost certainly see him today.
Additionally, Peterson has control issues. And, as we’ve seen this series, this Dodgers team will make you pay for that.
The Dodgers have put runners on consistently and delivered, sporting a 134 wRC+ this series to the Mets’ 77.
Two stats that also help tell the story of this series: Los Angeles has a whopping 17.4% walk rate and only a 20.7 K%. It’s hard to beat any offence that’s humming like that.
I expect the Dodgers to drive up Peterson’s pitch count fast and apply pressure, forcing Mets manager Carlos Mendoza into some tough early decisions.
Torres over 0.5 runs (+105): For the second straight day, I like this Torres prop.
The Yankees plated five runs last night but Torres didn’t score, marking the second time in seven postseason games he didn’t cross the plate.
He still has seven runs in as many games and has gotten on base at a .400 clip this postseason. Torres has only struck out four times and has drawn a walk in all but two contests.
That approach should continue to help him thrive on this market hitting in front of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge.
Torres has 38 runs in 46 games since moving into the leadoff spot on August 16.
Picks made at 11:10 a.m. ET on 10/18/2024.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.