October has arrived and the MLB playoff field is set.
The latest: The New York Yankees hold the AL’s top seed while the Los Angeles Dodgers lead the NL. No team has eclipsed 100 wins this season, though, meaning it’s anyone’s ballgame.
Check out our staff’s MLB playoff predictions, featuring wild-card picks and World Series winners.
MLB playoff predictions
The NL wild-card matchups (and thus the NL side of the bracket) are officially locked in.
The New York Mets secured a playoff berth with a win in Game 1 of Monday’s doubleheader and the Atlanta Braves followed suit by winning Game 2.
Sorry, Arizona Diamondbacks, no postseason baseball for you.
All eight wild-card teams will play Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday (if necessary) at the higher seed’s venue before taking on the four teams with byes.
American League wild card: Tigers vs. Astros
Game 1: Oct. 1 at 2:32 p.m. ET
Picks: Astros (Toman, Horrobin, Perri)
Tigers vs. Astros betting markets
Toman says: I’m not buying what the Tigers are selling. I wouldn’t pick them to beat any of the AL playoff teams, and certainly not the Astros. Tarik Skubal gives Detroit a good chance to steal Game 1, but Houston is countering with its own shutdown lefty, Framber Valdez, and has a monster starting pitching advantage after that.
Horrobin says: Remember Houston’s 7-19 start? The Astros went 81-54 (.600) the rest of the way. The “Gritty Tigs” are fun to root for, but they don’t have enough proven performers to take down a squad gunning for its fifth AL pennant in eight years.
Perri says: The Tigers feel like a team of destiny but they’re running into a juggernaut that’s been to seven straight ALCS. Skubal gives Detroit the edge in Game 1 but I can’t bet against the Astros, especially with all three games in Houston.
Royals vs. Orioles
Game 1: Oct. 1 at 4:08 p.m. ET
Picks: Orioles (Toman, Horrobin, Perri)
Royals vs. Orioles betting markets
Toman says: Like Detroit, Kansas City is deploying an arm that can snatch Game 1 (Cole Ragans). And while I like the rest of its rotation more than Detroit’s, Baltimore’s offence is a difference-maker. The Orioles ranked third in wRC+ while the Royals were below average.
Horrobin says: Bobby Witt Jr. had an amazing year — one that will likely lead him to a runner-up finish in AL MVP voting — but he can’t prop up an entire lineup. Over the past month, KC has the worst team OPS (.579) in the majors. Even with a white-knuckle bullpen, I think Baltimore wins, 2-0.
Perri says: If you took away Kansas City’s games against the White Sox (12-1), it would be a .500 ballclub. Corbin Burnes has found his stuff and Baltimore’s offence is among the best in baseball. Give me the O’s in a sweep.
National League wild card: New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Game 1: Oct. 1 at 5:32 p.m. ET
Picks: Mets (Toman, Perri), Brewers (Horrobin)
Mets vs. Brewers betting markets
Toman says: I like that the Mets have been in postseason mode for weeks, fighting to get in and needing a win yesterday. What I especially like is their deep and powerful lineup, headlined by Francisco Lindor who posted a .933 OPS in the second half (No. 9 in baseball). The Mets had an MLB-best 17 wins in September and have been six games better than the Brewers since June 1.
Horrobin says: I know the Mets’ rotation is lined up as well as it could be after Monday’s doubleheader, but I have a tough time looking past this brutal schedule stretch (New York will play nine games in eight days if this series goes the distance). The Brewers went 5-1 against the Mets this year and are in good shape to win this series at home.
Perri says: This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Mets. But now they’re in the playoffs and I expect them to pull off an upset. New York has been red-hot since the All-Star Game, ranking top 10 in ERA and wRC+. The travel situation is less than ideal but Milwaukee’s bats have gone ice cold (28th in September batting average).
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres
Game 1: Oct. 1 at 8:38 p.m. ET
Picks: San Diego (Toman, Horrobin, Perri)
Braves vs. Padres betting markets
Toman says: Perhaps we wouldn’t get this matchup if Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley were healthy, but it would have the makings of a classic. Without them, even though Atlanta’s offence has done a great job to survive, the Braves are outmatched. Especially with Chris Sale likely down now, too. The Padres played at a .683 clip in the second half and are as well-rounded as any team in baseball.
Horrobin says: The Padres are scorching hot right now, and unlike the Braves, their best players aren’t hurt. Not only did the Braves have to push all their chips in to avoid a doubleheader sweep at home yesterday, but now they’ll likely be without NL Cy Young favourite Sale in the wild-card round. San Diego should be in buzz-saw mode right now.
Perri says: San Diego is peaking at the right time. The Padres have the second-best record since Aug. 1 and a 2.83 team ERA in September. The Braves lost Acuna, Riley and Spencer Strider for the season and now seem to be adding Sale to that list. That’s too much to overcome.
MLB playoff predictions: AL playoffs
Toman says: With respect to the Tigers and Guardians, the Astros have the easiest path to the LCS of any team. It’s still not easy and will only get harder as a showdown with either the Orioles or Yankees likely awaits. For me, it’s going to be the Yankees, who I believe have the pitching advantage over the Orioles in a series featuring two elite offences.
That sets up an Astros vs. Yankees ALCS. The Astros have a deep rotation, which is going to bump some arms to the bullpen and make the relief group that much better. They have MLB’s best record since June 1 and still have an offence to fear (No. 5 in wRC+).
Horrobin says: Do you want an interesting prediction or a correct one? Warning, I might be short on both accounts… but I really like the Yankees. Gerrit Cole is chucking Cy Young-calibre stuff again (2.25 ERA since August), Aaron Judge never cooled down and Juan Soto knows how to shine in October.
Houston should probably be the other pennant contender, but I’ll ride with a Guardians team that boasts the league’s best bullpen.
Perri says: We’ve seen this one before… Yankees vs. Astros for a spot in the Fall Classic. Houston has the fourth-best record since the start of August and will take on a sputtering Guardians squad if it gets by the Tigers, as I predict.
As for New York, I’ll echo Horrobin: Judge, Soto and a resurgent Cole are a winning combination.
NL playoff predictions
Toman says: I don’t trust the Dodgers’ rotation and as much as I would love to see Shohei Ohtani stay in the postseason as long as possible, I don’t think they’re getting by both the Padres and Phillies to reach the World Series. In fact, I don’t think they are getting by either and are looking at an LDS exit.
So it’s a Phillies/Padres NLCS for me in what feels like a coin flip. Give me the Phillies.
Horrobin says: If the Padres are the NL’s prisoner-of-the-moment team, lock me up. They’ve played at a 110-win pace in the second half and had a sub-3.00 ERA as a team in September. Jackson Merrill is a Rookie of the Year finalist and Luis Arraez is a batting champ, while Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado both slugged better than .500 in September.
The Padres will return to the World Series for the first time since they had orange in their colour scheme and the late Tony Gwynn in their lineup.
Perri says: On top of how hot San Diego has been, I have to like its path to the World Series. The Padres get banged-up Braves team in a best-of-three wild-card series before taking on the Dodgers, who are the favourites to win it all.
L.A.’s pitching staff is ravaged by injury and San Diego has had its number this year (8-5 record). Merrill, Tatis and Machado are just a few of San Diego’s elite bats who can make any arm pay.
MLB playoff predictions: The World Series
Toman says: I like the Phillies’ rotation and I love their offence. Zack Wheeler is an ace who can eat innings and dominate, shortening up games and letting the Phillies ride their hot relievers. Aaron Nola is a notch down but can do the same.
The Phillies have lefty and righty mashers, high-OBP guys and run the bases well. It’s a dynamic lineup that’s going to be a nightmare to contain in a seven-game series. In a rematch of the 2022 World Series, I like the Phillies to get their revenge.
Horrobin says: Give me the Yankees to return to the mountaintop for the first time since 2009 (an eternity in the privileged eyes of the Pinstripe faithful). Can Judge and Soto carry New York’s lineup, the same way Clay Holmes and Luke Weaver may have to carry the bullpen?
After posting a +147 run differential this year — 56 runs better than any other AL club — that’s the bet I’m making.
Perri says: The Astros will win it all, no trash cans needed. Kyle Tucker is back and buzzing and slots into a deadly offence with boatloads of postseason experience.
Houston’s rotation isn’t top-level but is respectable while the bullpen is elite. Take the ‘Stros over the Padres… in six.
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