The Toronto Blue Jays’ season is on the line ahead of Sunday’s ALCS Game 6 at Rogers Centre.
The pregame narrative: An eighth-inning bullpen meltdown cost the Blue Jays Game 5, and has the Seattle Mariners one win away from the World Series. Toronto is a slight home favourite behind rookie sensation Trey Yesavage, who is pitching opposite Logan Gilbert.
Check out my Mariners vs. Blue Jays picks for Oct. 19, featuring predictions on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays picks
Best bet: Yesavage over 4.5 Ks (-138)
Yesavage wasn’t at his best when he faced Seattle in Game 2, giving up five runs with four Ks over 4.0 IP.
But he was the victim of a few questionable calls and wasn’t getting the typical swing-and-miss we’re used to seeing from his splitter.
I’m betting Yesavage will have that punchout pitch dialled in today, because why wouldn’t he?
- The righty had a 69% whiff rate with his splitter against the New York Yankees in the ALDS. In that game, he struck out 11 over 5.1 hitless innings.
- In the regular season, he had a 57.1% whiff rate with his spitter. For context, Tarik Skubal’s changeup (which led MLB in run value) had a 46.8% whiff rate.
- Seattle batted .200 against splitters with a 34.6% whiff rate this year.
Yesavage has been a strikeout machine at every level of the game, posting an absurd 14.7 K/9 rate in the minor leagues this year.
He made one of baseball’s best lineups look foolish in the ALDS, and I’m confident he can do that again in the biggest start of his career.
Key stat: Seattle has the seventh-highest K rate (23.6%) in MLB and is averaging 10.7 Ks per game in the postseason.
MLB prop picks
Guerrero to score (+105): Guerrero got the full Aaron Judge treatment on Friday, logging a pair of intentional walks after belting a first-inning double.
I want to back Vladdy in some capacity, and think this is the safer option than his bases total. It also carries better odds.
Toronto’s lead man has been a beast this postseason, posting a .457/.524/.971 slash line with nine runs in nine games.
He’s also had Gilbert’s number, going 6-for-17 against the righty with two home runs.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks made at 11:35 a.m. on 10/19/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.