Kerry Carpenter and Rafael Devers headline Tuesday’s MLB home run picks.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Both players will have a platoon advantage tonight, with Carpenter going up against Will Warren at Yankee Stadium. Devers, meanwhile, has finally found a groove after a horrible start to his Giants tenure.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 9.
MLB home run picks
Best Bet: Carpenter to hit a home run (+440)
Carpenter is an ideal man to target when the time and price are right.
The outfielder rocks right-handed pitching, rarely takes walks, and now gets to play in one of the most hitter-friendly venues in baseball.
- Carpenter is slugging .529 vs. RHPs this season.
- He ranks in the 75th percentile or higher in xSLG, barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant.
- Carpenter’s 3.9% walk rate ranks in the second percentile and should offset Warren’s wild nature.
- Yankee Stadium has allowed 20% more HRs than average to left-hitting batters over the last three seasons, according to Baseball Savant’s Park factors.
Warren is having a decent sophomore season, walk issues aside, and has posted a 2.97 ERA in five starts since Aug. 1.
But he’s given up five home runs in those outings with a .285 xBA and a 54% hard-hit rate. Some regression is due, and I expect Carpenter to be all over him tonight.
Key stat: Warren ranks in the bottom-15th percentile in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate.
Best HR predictions
Devers to hit a home run (+440): The San Francisco Giants have needed Devers at his best for their playoff push, and so far, he’s delivered.
- San Fran is 12-3 in its last 15 games. In that span, Devers is slashing .333/.424/.684 with six home runs.
- And since Aug. 1, he is slashing .283/.373/.583 with 12 home runs.
Tonight, Devers gets to go up against Zac Gallen and the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Gallen is easily having the worst season of his career, despite logging four straight quality starts. He has posted career lows in ERA (4.77), WHIP (1.28), K/9 (8.3), and HR/9 (1.4).
Lefties are slugging .445 off of Gallen, and Devers is slugging .514 off of righties.
MLB home run picks made at 10:27 a.m. ET on 09/09/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.