Rafael Devers has a chance to hit a home run in a third straight game on Tuesday night, and I’m backing him in my MLB home run picks.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Devers hit a titanic, 411-foot blast into Denver’s mountain air last night, clocking a 114.5-mph exit velocity in the process. He’s now one homer shy of a fourth 30-HR season in his career.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 2, featuring Ozzie Albies.
MLB home run picks
Best Bet: Devers to hit a home run (+350)
Devers isn’t at his best in lefty-on-lefty matchups, but this is still a playable price based on other factors.
- The opposing starter gets shelled routinely. Colorado’s Kyle Freeland (3-13, 5.28 ERA) has a 2.36 HR/9 since the second half, which is the second-worst among 67 qualifiers. He also ranks in the bottom-10th percentile in xBA, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant.
- Devers is rolling. In 23 games since Aug. 8, Devers has nine HRs and a .667 SLG. He has also homered in back-to-back games entering Tuesday.
- Coors Field is a haven for offence. Colorado’s home park allows 25% more runs than average, which is the greatest discrepancy in MLB.
The platoon disadvantage for Devers is suboptimal, but he is 1-for-3 with a home run already against Freeland. So at least we know it can be done.
Freeland has coughed up multiple homers in back-to-back starts, along with 10 total HRs in his past seven outings.
Opposing hitters are slugging .531 against Freeland in 11 games at Coors Field this season.
Key stat: Devers has a 15.8% barrel rate (94th percentile) and a 93.7 mph average exit velocity (98th percentile).
Best HR predictions
Albies to hit a home run (+480): Albies is a second baseman with a .354 SLG on the season. You’re not going to find a player like that in my home run prop crosshairs very often.
But Albies is swinging a hot bat lately, posting a .313/.345/.530 slash line over his past 20 games. He also has three HRs in the past week.
- Albies is a switch-hitter who fares better from the right side (career .533 SLG), which is where he’ll be tonight against Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga.
- Imanaga’s 3.08 ERA over 20 starts might seem intimidating, but he’s been hurt by the long ball many times before. In 11 starts since July, Imanaga has allowed 14 homers.
- To put it another way, Imanaga’s 1.87 HR/9 since July is the fifth-highest among 70 qualified pitchers.
MLB home run picks made at 10:35 a.m. ET on 09/02/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.