Aaron Judge is in a groove, and headlines Monday’s MLB home run picks.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Judge is barreling toward his third AL MVP award and fourth 50-homer season. The New York Yankees star slugger has respectable odds to go deep against Simeon Woods Richardson in Minnesota.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 15, featuring a pick on Willy Adames.
MLB home run picks
Best Bet: Judge to hit a home run (+175)
There aren’t many players you’ll find with +175 odds to go deep, especially at offence-neutral venues like Target Field.
But Judge is an anomaly in so many ways.
He’s belted 48 home runs this year, and passed the legendary Joe DiMaggio with his 362nd home run as a Yankee on Friday.
Judge added another on Sunday and has now gone deep in four of his last six games. In that stretch, he’s slashing an absurd .450/.560/1.200.
Woods Richardson and Co. would be wise to pitch around Judge, but everyone has tried that, and it seldom works.
The one-time Toronto Blue Jays prospect has struggled this year, posting a 4.58 ERA across 19 starts. He’s also given up six home runs in his last five outings.
Key stat: Judge leads MLB in home runs per at-bat (0.10).
Best HR predictions
Adames to hit a home run (+400): Let’s turn our attention to the West Coast to balance out Judge’s short odds with a much healthier +400 play.
Adames has been on fire during the San Francisco Giants’ playoff push, belting nine home runs over the last 30 days. In that span, his .315 ISO ranks 12th in MLB.
Tonight, he gets to go up against Arizona Diamondbacks righty Zac Gallen.
The 30-year-old is having a nightmare season, posting career-worsts in ERA (4.84), opponent slugging (.431), and K/9 rate (8.1).
His 1.4 HR/9 rate is tied for his career-worst, too, and is the sixth-highest among qualified pitchers.
Adames is just 3-for-24 against Gallen, but two of those hits left the yard.
And Adames’ .257 xBA and .595 xSLG in those at-bats indicate he’s been a bit unlucky.
MLB home run picks made at 12:05 p.m. ET on 09/15/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.