Bryce Harper and Bobby Witt Jr. are my targets in Saturday’s star-powered version of MLB home run picks.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Witt will dig into the box against the most homer-friendly pitcher in the league tonight, and I expect him to take advantage. As for Harper, his second-half surge is worth investing in.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 9.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Witt to hit a home run (+325)
The best pitcher to target on the home run prop market today is Bailey Ober. And I don’t think it’s particularly close.
- Among 105 pitchers with 90+ innings pitched, Ober has the highest HR/9 rate (2.13).
- He has allowed at least one homer in seven consecutive starts, serving up 17 HRs overall in that span.
The likeliest player to go deep at Target Field tonight is Witt, and I think this price point is worth jumping at.
The shortstop homered in last night’s series opener, improving his slash line to .275/.373/.569 over the past 13 games.
Also, Witt has fantastic numbers against Ober:
- 12-for-25 (.480)
- 5 extra-base hits (1 HR)
- .765 xSLG
Ober throws a four-seam fastball that averages just 90.4 mph, per Baseball Savant. Given that Witt is slugging .533 against four-seamers from righties, he should be salivating at the thought of that pitch.
Furthermore, Ober’s three secondary pitches to right-hitting players have been whacked all over the yard. His changeup, slider and sweeper have a combined .577 SLG from opposing RHBs.
Key stat: Witt ranks in the 90th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG and average exit velocity.
Best HR predictions
Harper to hit a home run (+325): Jacob deGrom gets the ball for the Texas Rangers, which initially gave me pause about backing anyone on the Phillies’ side.
But, for as effective as deGrom has been this season (10-4, 2.80 ERA), he’s quite capable of making a mistake that exits the park
deGrom has allowed 10 homers in his past six games. And he’s below the 50th percentile (i.e., below average) in barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity this season.
With that in mind, I like Harper as a home run option for Philadelphia. He’s been awesome since the all-star break and has already homered off deGrom twice in his career.
Since the break, Harper is slugging .649 with seven HRs in 19 games.
MLB home run picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET on 08/09/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.