Corbin Carroll is off to a strong start in August, and he’s the headliner for my Friday night MLB home run picks.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Carroll won’t have a platoon advantage tonight, but he does have some strong results against the pitcher he’s facing. In St. Louis, Seiya Suzuki has a compelling matchup against a sinkerballer.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 8.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Carroll to hit a home run (+320)
Don’t let Carroll’s 5-foot-10, 165-pound frame fool you. He can wallop a baseball with the best of ’em.
Carroll is on his way to leading the National League in triples for a third straight season. But he’s also got 23 home runs, which are two shy of his career-best mark.
His expected slugging percentage is .546, which ranks in MLB’s 94th percentile, per Baseball Savant.
And given that his actual SLG is also .546, that’s completely legit.
Carroll also ranks in the 86th percentile or better in barrel rate, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. That kind of consistent pop never hurts.
Tonight, Carroll will be in a lefty-on-lefty matchup that I’d typically prefer to avoid. But he has some very encouraging numbers vs. Colorado southpaw Austin Gomber: 6-for-13 (.462) with two home runs and a double.
Gomber has coughed up at least one HR in six straight outings, and he has a 6.18 ERA in nine starts overall this year.
Also, Gomber owns a 13.6% barrel rate, which ranks in the second percentile. That metric, along with his 21st-percentile xBA (.272), demonstrates the type of high-quality contact he’s allowing.
Key stat: Carroll has two home runs and a .970 OPS so far this month.
Best HR predictions
Suzuki to hit a home run (+375): It’s always preferable to back Suzuki when there’s a lefty on the mound, but he’s a pretty dangerous hitter against righties, too.
Tonight, Suzuki will face Cardinals starter Michael McGreevy, a sinker-first pitcher whose .298 xBA ranks in the fourth percentile, per Baseball Savant.
On June 24 in St. Louis, Suzuki went 2-for-3 with a home run off McGreevy. He drilled a sinker 404 feet to left-centre field.
Ideally, we’ll see something like that again. Suzuki is 18-for-58 (.310) with five homers and a .638 SLG against sinkers from RHPs.
The outfielder is slugging .498 vs. RHPs overall this year and is tied for seventh in MLB in home runs (27).
MLB home run picks made at 10:20 a.m. ET on 08/08/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.