Thursday’s MLB slate features just four games, and I’m tapping into two of them for some home run picks.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Agustin Ramirez has been a solid offensive contributor in his first season with the Marlins, and tonight’s righty-on-righty matchup should work in his favour. Elsewhere, Oneil Cruz’s propensity to hit the ball really hard has my attention.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 7.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Ramirez to hit a home run (+450)
With right-hander Carlos Carrasco on the mound for the Braves tonight, my initial instinct was to target a left-hitting player in the Marlins’ lineup.
But Carrasco has reverse splits, meaning his better numbers have actually come against LHBs this season. So let’s highlight a right-hitting batter who should be a solid candidate to go yard.
Ramirez, a rookie catcher, is having a solid season across the board when it comes to contact quality.
According to Baseball Savant, the 23-year-old ranks in the 82nd percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Ramirez has some modest reverse splits, posting a slightly better OPS against righties (.756) than against lefties (.732). But this is really more about Carrasco.
The 38-year-old pitcher has allowed a .299/.347/.642 slash line to RHBs this year, including five homers in nine games.
Carrasco ranks in the 12th percentile in barrel rate (11.0%) and in the 14th percentile in xBA (.281).
Any right-hitting players with some pop are worth a look when Carrasco takes the mound.
Key stat: Ramirez has 17 home runs this season, and 12 of them came against right-handed pitchers.
Best HR predictions
Cruz to hit a home run (+500): Cruz comes up empty. A lot. But when he connects, the ball can go a long, long way.
Cruz’s 31.8% strikeout rate ranks in the second percentile in MLB, and his .234 xBA ranks in the 16th percentile. Not great.
But there’s a lot of pop in his bat, too:
- 100th-percentile exit velocity (96.4 mph)
- 99th-percentile hard-hit rate (57.9%)
- 98th-percentile barrel rate (19.8%)
The outfielder’s elite power potential is what landed him in the Home Run Derby, and it’s why he’s an interesting play at 5-to-1.
Reds starter Brady Singer doesn’t allow a ton of home runs, but his 9.4% barrel rate (32nd percentile) and 90.5 mph average exit velo (19th percentile) aren’t exactly glowing.
At this price, you could do worse than back a guy who clubs 95+ mph rockets in his sleep.
MLB home run picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET on 08/07/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.