Two switch-hitters are in the spotlight for Saturday’s MLB home run picks.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Francisco Lindor is having a wonderful month, and I like him to keep that up in a really enticing matchup. Ian Happ also draws an enticing matchup, which will hopefully help him break free of a mini power outage.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 23.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Lindor to hit a home run (+350)
Lindor is a switch-hitter who has been markedly better from the left side this season:
- LHB (vs. righties): 403 plate appearances, 19 HRs, .853 OPS
- RHB (vs. lefties): 171 plate appearances, 6 HRs, .667 OPS
Tonight, the all-star shortstop will be on his preferred side against Braves right-hander Cal Quantrill, who coughed up two homers against the Mets back in March.
Lindor didn’t have either of those, but I do like his chances to take advantage of a pitcher who’s really struggling to limit loud contact.
Check out some of Quantrill’s notable metrics, as tracked by Baseball Savant (percentile rankings in parentheses):
- .290 xBA (7th)
- 11.6% barrel rate (7th)
- 5.52 ERA (8th)
- 44.5% hard-hit rate (20th)
Lindor is having a superb month, batting .372 with a .654 SLG in 19 games. His 53% hard-hit rate in August is well above MLB’s 2025 season average (40.9%).
Quantrill has allowed four homers over his past three starts. Hopefully, Lindor will add to that.
Key stat: Lindor has eight extra-base hits, including four HRs, in his past eight games.
Best HR predictions
Happ to hit a home run (+320): Happ, like Lindor, is a switch-hitter who fares better from the left side.
That’s where 13 of his 16 home runs have come, after all. And his OPS as a left-hitting player (.739) is nearly 100 points north of his OPS from the right side (.641).
Unlike Lindor, Happ hasn’t been crushing the ball lately. But tonight’s matchup looks like a very promising one for him.
Victor Mederos gets the start for the Angels, and he’s had a rough go of things in a limited sample this year. In 13.0 innings over four outings, he has a 5.54 ERA and a .551 opponent SLG.
Roughly half the time, Mederos is grooving mid-90s sinkers to opposing hitters — and they collectively have a .609 SLG off that pitch type.
Happ is the Cubs’ best sinkerballer hitter when a righty is on the mound, which is a key reason why I’m backing him.
This season, Happ is 12-for-27 (.444) with four homers off sinkers from RHPs.
MLB home run picks made at 3:53 p.m. ET on 08/23/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.