Tuesday’s MLB home run picks feature two big names — Gunnar Henderson and Freddie Freeman — against two woeful pitchers.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Henderson and Freeman are both swinging hot bats, but these predictions have almost as much to do with the pitchers they’re facing. Walker Buehler and Austin Gomber have been coughing up a ton of home runs in 2025.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 19.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Henderson to hit a home run (+475)
Henderson homered in last night’s series opener against Boston, building on a really nice run that started in late July.
From July 26 onward, the star third baseman is batting .304 with a .957 OPS. He only has four home runs in that span, but the contact quality has been excellent.
Case in point, Henderson has a .333 xBA during that stretch, per Baseball Savant. So his actual production should be even better.
Tonight’s matchup vs. Buehler should be a good one for Henderson, and that’s definitely a factor with this pick:
- Left-hitting players are batting .317 with an .860 OPS against the right-handed Buehler this season.
- Buehler has a 1.78 HR/9, which is the fifth-highest rate among 100 pitchers with 100+ innings of work.
For as rough as things have been at times for Buehler, it could actually be worse. His xERA (5.69) and xSLG (.482) both outpace his actual numbers (5.43 ERA, .462 SLG).
Henderson flirted with 40 homers last year, finishing with 37 en route to a fourth-place AL MVP finish.
He’s nowhere near that HR total this year, clubbing just 15 so far, but I’m buying in on his recent form and the Buehler matchup.
Key stat: Henderson ranks in the 91st percentile or better in bat speed, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity and xBA.
Best HR predictions
Freeman to hit a home run (+290): These odds aren’t particularly exciting, but I felt compelled to highlight someone on the Dodgers’ side against Gomber.
- It’s not Gomber’s fault that he pitches for the Rockies, but it is his problem. He has allowed 17 extra-base hits (seven HRs) and a staggering 1.010 OPS in just five outings at Coors Field this season.
- Gomber has allowed multiple HRs in all three starts this month.
- Freeman is 6-for-16 with two HRs vs. Gomber, including a bomb to centre field in Denver last summer.
Lately, Freeman has powered up against the league as a whole, which is part of the reason he’s my target for L.A.
The first baseman has a .348/.416/.636 slash line and five homers in his past 18 games.
MLB home run picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET on 08/19/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.