Samuel Basallo is looking for his first MLB home run, and I think tonight could be the night.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: The Baltimore Orioles’ top prospect nearly homered in his first big-league game on Sunday, and his long shot odds make him a player to watch on Monday in Boston. Later on, Manny Machado is due for some damage after weeks of hard contact with nothing to show for it.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 18.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Basallo to hit a home run (+800)
Interested in a long shot play on a blue-chip talent?
Look no further than Basallo, a consensus top-20 MLB prospect.
The 21-year-old debuted on Sunday and was robbed of a home run on a 350-foot flyout. He finished 1-for-4 with a single that left his bat at 101.1 mph, per Baseball Savant.
Basallo’s 60-grade power is something the Orioles are excited for, and it shouldn’t be long before he parks his first home run. He had 23 HRs in 76 games with Triple-A Norfolk before getting promoted.
The left-hitting rookie has a platoon advantage vs. Boston righty Dustin May, too. Basallo slugged .626 against RHPs in Triple-A this season.
May has allowed eight HRs in his past seven starts. And left-hitting players have a .459 SLG against him this year (notably higher than the .384 SLG he allows to right-hitting players).
Unless you’ve been grinding minor league tape — and I haven’t been — there’s not much of a track record to work off of with Basallo.
This is more about buying the hype of a big-time prospect who has raked at lower levels.
Key stat: May ranks in the 20th percentile or worse in xERA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Best HR predictions
Machado to hit a home run (+320): After homering seven times last month, Machado is homerless in August. But he’s still hitting the ball really hard.
- Machado’s 52.8% hard-hit rate ranks in the 96th percentile, and he’s up to a 55% hard-hit rate this month.
- Somehow, he is just 1-for-7 (with a single) on fly balls that have travelled at least 340 feet.
Machado will face Giants starter Robbie Ray, who he homered against back in June.
In terms of career-long numbers, Machado is just 5-for-19 (.263) vs. Ray … but three of those hits left the yard.
From a power perspective, Machado’s slump isn’t as rough as it seems. He’s quite capable of breaking out against Ray.
MLB home run picks made at 11 a.m. ET on 08/18/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.