Brent Rooker went deep against Tampa Bay’s Ryan Pepiot last month, and I’m hoping the Athletics’ slugger can do it again.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Rooker is slugging .600 with three home runs over his past 11 games, and he tends to do his best work at home. Pepiot, meanwhile, has allowed at least one HR in six of his past seven games.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 11, featuring Hunter Goodman.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Goodman to hit a home run (+380)
There are so few bright spots this season for the Rockies, but Goodman is one of them.
The second-year catcher leads the team in home runs (22) and fWAR (2.4). He’s not doing anything special defensively, but his bat packs a punch.
Goodman has too much swing-and-miss in his game, but not every pitcher is going to take advantage of that.
Tonight, for instance, St. Louis trots out Miles Mikolas, who has some truly brutal metrics, per Baseball Savant:
- 3rd-percentile whiff rate
- 4th-percentile barrel rate
- 9th-percentile K%
- 15th-percentile xBA
The only thing Mikolas does at an elite clip is limit walks. His 5.1% walk rate ranks in the 94th percentile, which tells me Goodman should get something to hit.
Mikolas has been getting shelled lately, posting a 6.07 ERA in his past six starts — with 12 homers allowed in that span.
It’d be nice if this game were being played in Colorado’s thin mountain air rather than in St. Louis, but I still believe Goodman has a chance to tee off.
Key stat: Since June 1, Goodman has 15 HRs in 43 starts while slugging .626.
Best HR predictions
Rooker to hit a home run (+310): Rooker is a frequent guest in these home run picks articles, and for good reason. He swings a powerful bat in a very hitter-friendly park.
- Rooker has 24 HRs (18th in MLB), as well as a 90th-percentile xSLG (.523).
- The Athletics’ home field, Sutter Health Park, is the No. 2 scoring environment in the league (19% more runs than average).
Surely, Rooker’s name is circled on the scouting report for Pepiot. But I don’t think it’ll matter.
Pepiot has coughed up 10 HRs over his past seven starts. On the season, his 1.59 HR/9 is the fourth-highest mark among 57 qualified pitchers.
Rooker is 3-for-8 against Pepiot, including a solo home run on July 2.
MLB home run picks made at 11:25 a.m. ET on 08/11/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.