The ALDS shifts to New York when the Yankees host the red-hot Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday, October 7.
The pregame narrative: Toronto can sweep its way to the ALCS with a victory. The Blue Jays have manhandled their division rival this series, and while I’m not picking a side, I do expect Toronto’s offence to produce yet again.
Check out my Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks for Game 3 in the Bronx, featuring prop recommendations on Carlos Rodon, George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks
Best bet: Toronto over 3.5 runs (-106)
The Blue Jays aren’t going to put up double digits every game, but this line is highly playable.
In fact, it feels like a no-brainer.
It’s hard to ignore what Toronto has done to New York in the ALDS: 23 runs on 29 hits. Video game numbers to put the series-favoured Yankees on the brink.
But it’s beyond those two blowout wins. Toronto was a well-oiled machine during the regular season.
- The Blue Jays were No. 1 in the majors in batting average and on-base percentage.
- In the second half, the Blue Jays ranked first in wRC+ and runs scored.
Key stat: Toronto averaged 5.01 runs per game, third to the Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers.
Blue Jays best bets
Springer to score (-106): If the Blue Jays’ offence is going to continue humming, Springer and Guerrero are two players I want a piece of. Especially at these prices.
- Springer is the leadoff hitter of this dangerous lineup, and scored 106 runs (tied for third in the AL) while setting a career-best .399 OBP.
- He led MLB in wRC+ and OBP in the second half, and was second in average and slugging.
The veteran has been as hot as any hitter for a long stretch now.
Springer has delivered many postseason homers in his career (demonstrating an ability to cash this himself), and has scored three times through the two games.
Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+125): Springer has faced Rodon more than any Blue Jay, but with mixed results. Guerrero’s performance is unquestioned.
- Guerrero has faced Rodon 21 times and never struck out. He has four extra-base hits, batting .588 and slugging .941.
- This series, he’s 6-for-9 with six RBI and a home run each game. He hasn’t struck out.
Two more things: Vladdy’s punished southpaws this season (.326/.428/.519) and he’s been a beast at Yankee Stadium.
- Career at NYY (48 games): .308 with a 1.002 OPS and 16 homers. He’s hit more bombs at Yankee Stadium than any park outside of Rogers Centre.
Vladdy’s ability to not only put the ball in play but to do it with authority makes this a smash play.
MLB postseason predictions
Rodon under 4.5 Ks (-108): This is no doubt a light line for Rodon, but here’s why I’m playing it:
- Toronto finished the regular season with the lowest K rate in baseball.
- The club struck out just twice in its Game 1 victory and then five times in Game 2.
- Rodon faced the Blue Jays twice this season, falling short of this number both times. In each outing, he went five innings and punched out four batters.
- Rodon is an above-average strikeout arm with upside, but his leash is going to be shorter than usual in an elimination game.
Despite allowing 13 runs on Sunday, Luke Weaver only threw a pitch after Will Warren absorbed 4.2 innings following Max Fried’s departure.
The Yankees’ bullpen will be in good shape on Tuesday.
Whether there’s a lot of trust in the group is another question, but manager Aaron Boone will have fresh arms to turn to and can play the matchups if Rodon exhibits signs of trouble.
Additionally, Rodon’s K rate dipped considerably in the second half.
The southpaw struck out 28.2% of the batters he faced in the first half, but was a measley 21.9% post-all-star break.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks made at 2:25 p.m. on 10/06/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.