Game 5 of the ALCS between the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners is set for 6:08 p.m. ET on Friday at T-Mobile Park.
The pregame narrative: The winner will take a 3-2 series lead before the ALCS concludes in Toronto. Neither team has won at home yet, with blowouts in each of the last three games.
Check out my Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks for Oct. 17, featuring predictions on Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Kevin Gausman, Ernie Clement and Daulton Varsho.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks
Best bet: Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+100)
It’s hard to ignore a plus-money price on Guerrero.
The Blue Jays star has been on another level during Toronto’s eight playoff games after posting a top-15 mark in wRC+ in the regular season.
- .455/.500/.970
- 5 homers
- 11 RBI
- 9 runs scored
He has cleared this line in five of eight games and struck out only once in 38 plate appearances.
Guerrero and the Blue Jays will see Bryce Miller, who, along with Seattle’s bullpen, held the first baseman hitless in Game 1.
That said, two of the top six balls in Game 1 with the highest exit velocity were struck by Guerrero at 107-plus mph, and both off Miller.
Guerrero is consistently putting the ball in play and making loud contact.
Key stat: Guerrero leads all postseason hitters with a 290 wRC+.
Blue Jays best bets
Gausman over 15.5 outs (-130): Toronto’s No. 1 starter gets the Mariners for the second time this series.
Gausman was yanked after 76 pitches in Game 1 but delivered a strong performance:
- 5.2 IP
- 3 H, 2 R
- 1 BB, 5 K
It marked the second time this postseason he worked 5.2 innings, making him 2-0 vs. this line.
Blue Jays manager John Schneider is unlikely to give Gausman a ton of rope after a brilliant Game 4 performance from Max Scherzer and an offensive eruption that helped save the bullpen from any high-leverage innings.
There’s also an off day baked in before Game 6.
That said, Gausman has generally been throwing the ball exceptionally well for months, and he’s by no means an auto-yank once the top of the order comes around for the third time.
- Gausman was 12-3 vs. this line over his final 15 starts of the season.
- He pitched to a 2.97 ERA (3.01 FIP) over that stretch with a well-above average 25.7 K%.
MLB prop picks
Clement 1+ RBI (+250): Clement has been a hitting machine, batting .452 this postseason with multi-hit games in five contests.
He moved up in the order to sixth last night. Assuming he’s there again, I love this price.
Clement is a free swinger (he hasn’t walked this postseason but only struck out twice), so his chances of putting the ball in play are high.
Toronto has done a terrific job getting on base, meaning there’s a good shot for Clement (six postseason RBI) to hit with runners on.
Outside of the first two ALCS contests, the Blue Jays have scored five-plus runs in every postseason game.
Varsho 1+ hit (-143): Varsho has a lot of swing and miss in his game and is more of a thumper than a great hitter. But he’s batting .281 this postseason with a hit in half of his contests.
His defence is great, so he’s at little risk of a substitution, meaning we’re probably looking at four-plus plate appearances.
For those thinking about matchups later: While Varsho does struggle to hit left-handed pitching, Seattle’s top southpaw Gabe Speier threw 32 pitches over 1.1 high-stress innings last night.
Speier was the one who walked Varsho in an eight-pitch battle.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks made at 11:35 a.m. on 10/17/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.