Coming off a bye, the USC Trojans are hosting the No. 15 Michigan Wolverines in a marquee Big Ten matchup.
The pregame narrative: The Wolverines are slight road underdogs against the unranked Trojans, whose offence has been electric so far this season. Michigan ran the ball at will against USC last season, and I expect another run-heavy approach from the visitors again.
Check out my Michigan vs. USC same-game parlay predictions for Oct. 11, featuring prop bets on Justice Haynes and Makai Lemon.
Michigan vs. USC predictions
Parlay: Haynes over 105.5 rush yards | Lemon 80+ rec. yards | Under 64.5 points (+400)
Haynes over 105.5 rushing yards (-118): You’d almost never see a rushing yards line this high in the NFL, but I’m not blinking at it for Haynes.
He’s been used early and often, and his home run potential has flashed every game.
- Haynes leads the Big Ten with 654 rushing yards, averaging 130.8 yards/game.
- The Alabama transfer has 100+ yards in every game. He’s 4-1 vs. this prop, falling just short in the lone outlier (104 yards on 14 carries in a 60-point blowout vs. Central Michigan).
- Haynes has a carry of 40+ yards in all five matchups.
Last season, Michigan rushed 46 times for 290 yards and three TDs vs. USC.
Haynes wasn’t there, mind you, and Michigan had an inept passing game with Alex Orji at the helm. But I think the Wolverines can deploy a similarly run-heavy strategy with success this time around.
USC’s defence ranks 123rd in rushing success rate, according to Game On Paper, and 62nd in EPA per rush.
Wolverines vs. Trojans SGP picks
Lemon 80+ receiving yards (-148): Lemon is a star who will be catching passes on Sundays next fall. For now, the Trojans are surely grateful to have him.
- The junior leads the Big Ten in receiving yards, averaging 117.8 yards/game
- He has 8+ targets in four of five games, as well as 90+ yards in four of five.
Last time out, Lemon turned 16 targets in to 11 catches for 151 yards and two TDs.
Michigan has a solid defence, as usual, but it’s been a far better outfit against the run. The Wolverines’ defence ranks ninth in run success rate and 70th in pass success rate.
In both of its road games this season, Michigan has allowed an opposing receiver to clear 100 yards.
Under 64.5 points (-286): The highest over/under of Michigan’s season is 49 points, so this might seem like a comical number to tease up to. But that’s the USC effect.
The Trojans’ offence, led by Lemon and quarterback Jayden Maiava, has been electric:
- 1st in EPA per play
- 1st in success rate
- 1st in yards per game
- 3rd in points per game
Overs are 4-1 in USC’s games, with an average total of 71.4 points.
With all of that in mind, betting any under in a game involving USC can be a scary proposition. But if Michigan commits to running the ball the way I expect, I think the game will stay under this total.
The average total in Michigan’s games is 49.0 points.
Michigan vs. USC predictions made at 11:52 a.m. ET on 10/10/2025
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.