Victoria Mboko has a shot to claim her first-ever WTA title in front of a Canadian crowd in Montreal.
The pregame narrative: Mboko has been a spectacle at the National Bank Open, defeating multiple top talents to the roars of her home crowd. In the final, she faces the former world No. 1 Naomi Osaka.
Check out my Mboko vs. Osaka predictions for the women’s National Bank Open final on Thursday, Aug. 7.
Mboko vs. Osaka predictions
Best bet: Set 1 under 9.5 games (-134)
Mboko is an outstanding prospect, showing immense power and court IQ at just 18 years old. However, with that youth comes some erratic play, often leading to a lot of break points for her and her opponent.
At this event, she’s had 54 break point opportunities in six matches while allowing 40.
She’s also done a below-average job at holding serve (75%).
This can often lead to some lopsided scores, especially in the early going. And it can go both ways depending on how Mboko is playing.
- Against the No. 2-ranked Coco Gauff, she dominated the first set, winning 6-1.
- In the semifinal against Elena Rybakina, she dropped the first set 6-1 before coming back to win an epic showdown.
Osaka, on the other hand, has been much steadier in Montreal. She’s held 83% of her serves while winning over 70% of her break points.
The 27-year-old has also committed 13 double faults to Mboko’s 35.
I believe Mboko has the tools to overpower Osaka if she comes out on top of her game. But she can also fall behind quickly if she starts slow.
Either way, I expect the first set to be the least competitive.
Key stat: Combined, Mboko and Osaka have gone under this game total in eight of their past nine first sets.
Full Mboko vs. Osaka betting markets
National Bank Open women’s final picks
Mboko to win (+145): On paper, Mboko has been outmatched a few times this tournament. But she continues to use the crowd support to fuel an incredible run of form.
I’ve been riding with the Canadian up until this point, so how can I shy away in the final?
- Mboko is now 52-9 in 2025 (18-2 on hard courts).
- She spent the early part of the season on the Challenger Tour, but she has become a staple in WTA events.
- If you add in her indoor hard court record, Mboko is 37-3 in 2025 on the playing surface.
It’s worth mentioning her indoor record, because that puts her at a 74-22 mark on hard courts for her career. She dominates on this court type.
Osaka is no slouch; she has better than a 67% win rate on outdoor hard courts, and she’s playing her best tennis since she was ranked No. 1 back in 2019.
She’s only dropped one set at the National Bank Open, but her level of competition wasn’t the best.
Mboko has played and beaten two opponents ranked higher than Osaka’s top-seeded opponent.
The Canadian has passed each test with flying colours, and she’s come through in the biggest moments of her matches.
As an underdog, I’ll gladly back her to win her first WTA title.
Mboko vs. Osaka predictions made at 9:34 a.m. ET on 08/07/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.