Tuesday’s NBA slate wraps up with an 11 p.m. ET clash between the Sacramento Kings and Dallas Mavericks.
The pregame narrative: Both teams sit outside of the playoff picture, with Sacramento posting a basement-dwelling 8-28 record. Dallas is a 5.5-point road favourite tonight and should feel good about the play of Cooper Flagg, who’s now a massive -835 favourite to win Rookie of the Year.
Check out my Mavericks vs. Kings SGP predictions for Jan. 6, featuring prop bets on Flagg and DeMar DeRozan.
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Mavericks vs. Kings SGP predictions
Parlay: Mavericks -5.5 | Flagg 6+ rebounds | DeRozan under 18.5 points (+320)
Mavericks -5.5 (-109): Picking the spread in this matchup seems fairly simple to me.
Dallas is a bad team, but Sacramento is horrible.
The Kings have the worst net rating in the NBA (-11.5) and have dropped 15 of their last 18 games. One of those wins was against the Mavericks, but Anthony Davis was sidelined.
Davis will play tonight, and he’s been a force since Dec. 1:
- 20.9 points per game
- 11.5 rebounds per game
- 1.8 blocks per game
In terms of star power, Dallas has AD and Flagg — that’s miles clear of what Sacramento can offer.
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The Kings are missing three-time rebounding leader Domantas Sabonis, and are relying on three past-their-prime scorers to carry the load (DeRozan, Russell Westbrook, Zach LaVine).
Sacramento is an NBA-worst 11-22 ATS as an underdog this year.
NBA SGP picks
Flagg 6+ rebounds (-215): Speaking of Flagg, I think it’s time to take whatever “overrated” chatter there was and throw it out of the window.
The 2025 No. 1 pick struggled to start the year, but found his footing in December, averaging 23.5 points and 6.2 rebounds a night.
Flagg had two bad games to start the year, shooting a combined 8-for-27 from the field. I expect him to bounce back tonight, but I’m more interested in this rebounding total.
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Flagg has reached this milestone in nine of his last 10 games, corralling seven-plus boards five times.
He should feast on the glass tonight.
Sacramento is 29th in rebounding rate since Sabonis went down with an injury on Nov. 16.
DeRozan under 18.5 points (-127): Finally, I want to fade DeRozan.
The 36-year-old forward is putting up a respectable 18.3 PPG, but that’s a big dropoff from last year and by far his lowest mark since the 2012-13 season.
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He’s also been in a slump lately, failing to crack 15 points in four of his last six contests.
That includes a nine-point outing against the Mavs, where he shot 2-of-10 from the field.
Dallas is a nightmare matchup for DeRozan, who ranks in the 100th percentile among forwards in mid-range shot frequency, according to Cleaning the Glass.
The Mavs have the fourth-best mid-range defence in the league (42.0%). They also allow the second-fewest PPG to opposing small forwards, per Fantasy Pros.
Mavericks vs. Kings predictions made at 2 p.m. on Jan. 6, 2026.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.