The Western Conference’s final playoff spot will be filled on Friday when the Memphis Grizzlies host the Dallas Mavericks in the play-in tournament.
The pregame narrative: Memphis has been the much better — and healthier — team this season, and I expect it to advance. Prop bets on Klay Thompson and Zach Edey round out this +320 wager.
Check out my Mavericks vs. Grizzlies play-in SGP predictions for April 18.
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies predictions
Parlay: Grizzlies -3.5 | Edey 12+ rebounds | Thompson 3+ threes (+320)
Grizzlies -3.5 (-195): Both teams have been embattled in recent months, with Dallas trading away Luka Doncic and Memphis firing head coach Taylor Jenkins.
I don’t expect either team to put up much of a fight against the Oklahoma City Thunder, but Memphis has what it takes to get there.
The Grizzlies (48-34) had nine more wins than the Mavs (39-43) this season and are on home court, where they went 26-15.
That has to be worth something, right? Well, it’s actually worth seven points — the spread as of Thursday afternoon — and I’ll happily trim a few off that number to back Memphis.
Dallas went 2-5 down the stretch and is without all-star guard Kyrie Irving (torn ACL).
Memphis has an Anthony Davis-stopper in Jaren Jackson Jr., and I can’t really picture anyone else on the Mavericks taking over this game.
NBA SGP legs
Edey 12+ rebounds (-134): It’s hard to ignore what Edey is doing, and not just because he sticks out like a sore thumb at 7-foot-4, 305 pounds.
The Canadian has been on a tear since re-entering the starting lineup on March 29:
- 13.7 rebounds/game
- 11+ rebounds in 7 of 9 games
- 13+ rebounds in 6 of 9 games
Edey has logged 16-plus rebounds in four of his last five games, including a 17-rebound performance against the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday.
Golden State is undersized, so it’s reasonable to be skeptical that Edey will repeat against the Davis-led Mavs.
But Edey had 16 rebounds against Nikola Jokic and Co. on April 11 and 21 against the Detroit Pistons (fifth in rebounding rate this season) on April 5.
Thompson 3+ threes (-175): Thompson was playing point for the Mavericks in Wednesday’s play-in game against the Sacramento Kings, and he lit it up.
- 23 points
- 8-of-11 shooting
- 5-of-7 from 3-point range
The veteran guard isn’t what he used to be, but he still shot 39.1% from deep this season, clearing this line in 43 of 72 games (59.7%).
Also, the Grizzlies have allowed the eighth-most 3s to point guards and the fifth-most 3s to shooting guards over the last 30 days, according to Fantasy Pros.
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies predictions made at 12:00 p.m. ET 04/17/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.