The Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners close out an epic ALCS with a Game 7 at Rogers Centre on Monday night.
The pregame narrative: Toronto hasn’t been to the World Series in 32 years. Seattle hasn’t been to the World Series ever. The stakes couldn’t be higher in this winner-take-all matchup, which the Jays are favoured to win behind their deadline acquisition arm Shane Bieber.
Check out my Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions for ALCS Game 7, featuring George Kirby and Nathan Lukes.
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Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions
Parlay: Blue Jays over 3.5 runs | Kirby over 2.5 strikeouts | Lukes 1+ hits (+300)
Blue Jays over 3.5 runs (-137): I think Toronto will win this game. And it will because of the bats.
But backing the Blue Jays to win carries nearly identical odds as backing them to score over 3.5 runs. So in an effort to drive my thesis home (and to avoid having my heart ripped out while also losing the SGP), I’ll roll with this team total.
Just take a look at what Toronto’s offence has done this postseason:
- 1st in runs per game (6.7)
- 1st in batting average (.294)
- 1st in OPS (.885)
- 1st in home runs (19)
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The Jays clawed their way back into the ALCS by hammering Kirby for eight runs over 4.0 innings in Game 3, and there’s reason to believe they can do that again.
Toronto is batting .310 with a .535 slugging percentage against Kirby in 76 combined plate apperances. He has an 8.38 ERA against the Jays in five starts.
Look for another big night from the Jays’ bats.
MLB SGP legs
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Kirbv over 2.5 strikeouts (-186): Toronto is the hardest team in the majors to retire on strikes, but Kirby shouldn’t have an issue clearing this number — even if he gets shelled.
Case in point: He had four strikeouts in Game 3 while giving up eight hits.
Kirby has cleared this mark in six straight games dating back to the regular season, averaging 8.2 Ks in those outings.
His 26.1% K rate during the regular season ranked in the 76th percentile, per Baseball Savant.
Lukes 1+ hits (-205): Finally, I’ll turn to Lukes to record a hit.
The 31-year-old is having a moment this posteason, batting .343 with seven RBI. He’s recorded a hit in five straight games, and he went 2-for-5 last night with a pair of singles.
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That’s all really impressive, considering Lukes was toiling in the minor leagues for a decade before this season began.
Kirby has gotten shelled at Rogers Centre this year, and he has bad overall numbers on the road and against lefties.
- On the road: .279 opponent BA
- vs. LHBs: .264 opponent BA
Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions as of 10:15 a.m. on 10/20/2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.