The Toronto Blue Jays are in must-win territory as they enter Game 6 of the ALCS against the Seattle Mariners.
The pregame narrative: Manager John Schneider’s decision to put Brendon Little in to Game 5 has been heavily (and rightfully) scrutinized. But Toronto has won two of the last three games of this series, and it returns to the friendly confines of Rogers Centre.
Check out my Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions for ALCS Game 6, featuring prop bets on Trey Yesavage and Ernie Clement.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions
Parlay: Blue Jays ML | Yesavage over 5.5 strikeouts | Clement 1+ hits (+400)
Blue Jays ML (-129): Home-field advantage has been a real thing for Toronto this year.
No American League team won more home games than the Blue Jays this season (54). Toronto backed that up in the postseason by winning both of its games against the New York Yankees in the ALDS.
Bettors can’t ignore the fact that Seattle won both games in Toronto to start this series, but that can be viewed through two lenses:
- Seattle can manage playing at Rogers Centre better than most.
- An elite home team like Toronto is unlikely to lose three home games in one series.
I’m choosing to view Game 6 through the second lens.
Additionally, it’s hard to ignore Seattle starter Logan Gilbert’s noteworthy home-road splits:
| Location | ERA | Opponent BA | OPS |
| Home | 2.24 | .158 | .512 |
| Road | 4.74 | .261 | .767 |
Gilbert is a significantly better pitcher at T-Mobile Park than he is anywhere else.
I’ll gladly fade him in a high-pressure Game 6.
MLB SGP legs
Yesavage over 5.5 strikeouts (+128): There’s definitely some risk associated with this prop, but I’m happy to back it at this price.
Let’s get the obvious out of the way. In a must-win game, the Blue Jays will not waste time going to the bullpen if Yesavage struggles.
It’s also concerning that the young pitcher didn’t perform in his lone start of this series. The Mariners chased Yesavage off the mound after just four innings as he allowed five runs during that stretch.
But the larger body of work suggests Yesavage will bounce back.
He was stellar in his first postseason start, hurling 5.1 innings of no-run ball with 11 strikeouts against the Yankees.
He was excellent in his three regular-season outings, posting a 3.21 ERA and 2.35 FIP across 14 innings.
This prop is boosted by the fact that Seattle leads the postseason in strikeouts (107), averaging 10.7 per contest.
Clement 1+ hits (-182): Lastly, I’m expecting Clement to do what he’s done all postseason long.
This guy has been a consistent bat for the Blue Jays. He’s second on the team in hits (15) and boasts an otherworldly .429 average in October.
Clement has cashed this prop in seven of nine games during the playoffs (77.7%), a much higher rate than the implied odds suggest (64.5%).
What also helps this wager is that if Clement is going to get on base, it’s almost certainly going to be with his bat. He has yet to produce a walk this postseason.
Clement scored a hit off Gilbert in Game 2.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions as of 9:44 a.m. on 10/19/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.