After a subdued series opener, the Toronto Blue Jays look to even things up at home on Monday in Game 2 of the ALCS.
The pregame narrative: Toronto struck first but went quietly after that in Sunday’s 3-1 loss to the Seattle Mariners. The Jays are favourites on Thanksgiving behind Trey Yesavage, who returns to the mound after a historic postseason debut.
Check out my Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions for ALCS Game 2, featuring prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Cal Raleigh.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions
Parlay: Guerrero 2+ bases | Yesavage 6+ Ks | Raleigh to record a hit (+500)
Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+100): Guerrero went 0-for-4 in Game 1, but he put the ball in play every time and hit a couple of rockets.
Two of his balls in play had an exit velocity north of 107 mph, according to Baseball Savant. That type of contact is fairly commonplace for Guerrero, who ranked in the 90th percentile in hard-hit rate this year (50.7%).
The problem sometimes is that he’ll pound those hard-hit baseballs into the dirt for grounders. But I like his chances of elevating against Seattle’s Logan Gilbert today.
- Gilbert’s ground ball rate (39.8%) ranks in the 39th percentile. He’s known as an elite strikeout arm, not a guy who’ll convert a bunch of groundouts.
- Vlad Jr. has an elite contact bat, ranking in the 90th percentile in K rate and the 100th percentile in xBA. The concern with him is about getting the ball off the ground, and he can do that in this matchup.
- Guerrero is 6-for-15 (.400) with two home runs, two doubles and just two strikeouts vs. Gilbert.
MLB SGP legs
Yesavage over 5.5 strikeouts (-118): Rogers Centre was going berserk when Yesavage last took the mound. He struck out 11 batters in ALDS Game 2, setting a new single-game postseason record for the franchise.
In his first month as a big-leaguer, Yesavage has collected 27 Ks over 19.1 innings. He’s 2-2 vs. this prop, landing on exactly five strikeouts in one of his unders.
Monday’s matchup will be pressure-packed, especially with the Jays trailing early in the series. But the rookie right-hander joined Toronto amid a tense division race, so he’s been pitching under pressure this whole time.
The Mariners had the seventh-highest K rate during the regular season (23.3%). They’re up to a 28.0 K% in the playoffs.
Raleigh to record a hit (-175): As a switch-hitter with more than 20 homers from both sides of the plate, Raleigh is pretty much matchup-proof.
The MVP candidate is 10-for-25 (.400) in the postseason, going 6-0 vs. this prop.
Raleigh put the Mariners on the board in the sixth inning of Game 1, blasting a 420-foot homer off Gausman to turn the tide.
Any old hit will do today, though, and I expect Raleigh to get it done.
Blue Jays picks as of 10:26 a.m. on 10/13/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.