For the first time in nine years, the ALCS is back in Toronto, as the Blue Jays host the Seattle Mariners for Game 1 on Sunday night.
The pregame narrative: Two nights ago, the Mariners used seven pitchers — including their top three starters — to earn an ALCS berth. That puts Toronto in a favourable position to win this series. Backed by Kevin Gausman, the Blue Jays are expected to win Game 1 tonight.
Check out my Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions for ALCS Game 1, featuring prop bets on Josh Naylor and Alejandro Kirk.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions
Parlay: Blue Jays -1.5 | Naylor to record a hit | Kirk to record a hit (+390)
Blue Jays -1.5 (+128): Rest advantage isn’t talked about in baseball nearly as much as in football or basketball. But there should be a notable edge for Toronto in the series opener.
The Jays have had three full days off, providing plenty of time to nurse celebration hangovers, work on drills at their home park and line up their pitching rotation however they please.
The Mariners didn’t punch their ALCS ticket until the wee hours of Saturday morning (in eastern time), having gutted through a 15-inning slog against the Tigers.
Between the final out of Seattle’s ALDS and the first out of its ALCS, fewer than 43 hours will have passed — with a boozy celebration and a cross-country flight in between.
That’s one layer of this prediction, but it’s far from the only one.
- Toronto is 4-2 vs. Seattle this year, and all four wins covered a -1.5 run line.
- The Jays are 7-1 in their past eight games overall. They covered a -1.5 run line in every win during that span (they also led 6-1 in the lone loss).
- Seattle’s Bryce Miller allowed seven runs on eight hits in his lone start vs. Toronto this season (a 9-1 win for the Jays).
- At home, Toronto has an MLB-best record (56-27) and a +109 run differential.
MLB SGP legs
Naylor to record a hit (-180): Naylor was a great trade deadline addition for the Mariners, and he’s kept that rolling into October.
- Post-trade in the regular season, Naylor slashed .299/.341/.490 in 54 games for Seattle.
- In Games 4 and 5 of the ALDS, he went 6-for-10 with two doubles.
The Mississauga, Ontario native has felt right at home inside Rogers Centre, batting 16-for-51 (.314) with three doubles and a home run.
Against Gausman, Naylor is 4-for-11 lifetime.
Kirk to record a hit (-240): Kirk is among several Blue Jays worth backing on Sunday. I chose him because of his success against Miller’s pitch mix.
Against right-handed batters, Miller throws a combination of four-seamers, sinkers and splitters more than 75% of the time, per Baseball Savant.
Kirk had a .322 xBA and a .544 xSLG off those pitch types this year.
The two-time all-star catcher cashed this bet in three of four ALDS games. And his .290 xBA on the season ranked in the 90th percentile in the majors.
As for Miller, his .285 xBA ranked in the seventh percentile among pitchers.
Blue Jays picks as of 9:26 a.m. on 10/12/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.