The Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners meet for a pivotal ALCS Game 2 on this Canadian Thanksgiving Monday.
The pregame narrative: Toronto lost the series opener last night and will be desperate to even the score before heading west to Seattle for Games 3-5. The Jays turn to rookie sensation Trey Yesavage, who is pitching opposite Logan Gilbert.
Check out my Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bets for ALDS Game 2, featuring a prop bet on Anthony Santander.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bets
Best bet: Blue Jays over 3.5 runs (-137)
I took the Jays to go over 4.5 runs yesterday, which looked great after George Springer belted a leadoff home run in the first inning.
Toronto’s bats fell silent afterward, logging just one more hit, but I’ll go back to the well with one less run against Gilbert.
The Blue Jays had the best offence in the second half, and still lead the MLB playoffs in the following categories:
- Runs per game (7.0)
- Batting average (.294)
- Slugging percentage (.531)
- OPS (.864)
- K rate (15.8%)
Gilbert is an elite arm. His 3.02 xERA ranks in the 88th percentile on Baseball Savant, and his 32.7% K rate was second among starters with 70+ innings pitched.
But Toronto rarely goes down on strikes (the club only had four Ks yesterday), and the fireballing righty is pitching on short rest after throwing 34 pitches in Seattle’s ALDS Game 5 win on Friday.
Gilbert has also been hit hard by the Jays’ active lineup, allowing a .309 batting average and .543 slugging percentage in 100 combined plate apperances.
I’ll bank on a bounce back from John Schneider’s group on Monday.
Key stat: Toronto went over 3.5 runs in eight straight games prior to Game 1.
Other MLB postseason predictions
Santander over 0.5 hits (-124): Santander was one of two Blue Jays to record a hit yesterday, logging a single off Bryce Miller in the second inning.
The switch-hitter is now 3-1 against this line in the postseason, with a 30.7% K rate and zero walks.
I’d like to see less swing-and-miss, but at least Santander is swinging. And his zero walks is great for a market like this.
Santander’s numbers against Gilbert are strikingly similar.
He’s 3-for-9 against the righty with three Ks and zero walks. Santander has a .295 xBA in those at-bats, so I know he hasn’t lucked into that production.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bets as of 11:05 a.m. on 10/13/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.