The stage is set for a Sunday Night Baseball matchup with major playoff implications.
The pregame narrative: Thanks to a pair of road wins to open this series, the Seattle Mariners have moved two games ahead of the Houston Astros in the AL West. Seattle is favoured to complete the sweep on Sunday night with Logan Gilbert on the mound.
Check out my Mariners vs. Astros picks, featuring prop bets on Josh Naylor and Jesus Sanchez.
Mariners vs. Astros picks
Best Bet: Sanchez under 0.5 hits (+100)
I’ll gladly fade Sanchez at even money in a matchup that isn’t doing him many favours.
The left-hitting Sanchez is better against right-handed pitching, understandably, but he’s facing a righty with reverse splits.
Gilbert has been tough on everybody this year, but left-handed batters have it worse:
- LHBs vs. Gilbert: .195 BA, .581 OPS
- RHBs vs. Gilbert: .234 BA, .712 OPS
Among 101 pitchers with 120-plus innings of work, Gilbert ranks first in K/9 (12.3), fifth in xERA (2.91) and 15th in opponent BA (.212).
I don’t see this going well for Sanchez, who is hitless in nine of his past 12 starts. In that span, he’s batting 3-for-36 (.083).
If Gilbert keeps Sanchez hitless and the Mariners go to a lefty in the bullpen, there’s a decent chance the outfielder will be subbed out.
So he may not have a full game’s worth of opportunities, which only makes me more bullish on this prop.
Key stat: Gilbert has a .207 xBA (90th percentile), according to Baseball Savant.
Best MLB pick
Naylor over 1.5 total bases (+105): Naylor has been exactly what the Mariners were looking for as they readied for a playoff push, and he’s swinging a particularly hot bat right now.
- The Mississauga, Ontario native has a .373/.411/.647 slash line since Sept. 6.
- He is 9-4 vs. his bases prop in that span, averaging 2.5 bases per start.
The left-hitting slugger does his best work against righties, so I’m hoping for big things against Houston right-hander Jason Alexander. Naylor has an .831 OPS vs. RHPs this season.
Look for Naylor to continue to slug from the heart of Seattle’s order.
Mariners vs. Astros picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET on 09/21/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.