Things are starting to get messy as the Battle of Ontario moves back to Ottawa for Game 6 on Thursday.
The pregame narrative: The Toronto Maple Leafs had a 3-0 series lead but have let things slip away. I predict another big performance from Ottawa Senators’ Jake Sanderson in his team’s pursuit to even things up. My best bet, however, is on John Tavares.
Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Senators picks for Game 6 of the opening round.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators picks
Best Bet: Tavares over 2.5 shots (+130)
Tavares was able to clear this total in his third straight game, even though the Leafs were shut out in Game 5.
That makes the former captain 4-1 against this wager in the playoffs.
The Leafs have lost the last two games, but the good news for this pick is that they outshot Ottawa in the losses.
After totalling 65 shots in the first three games, Toronto combined for 63 shots in Games 4 and 5.
Tavares skated for 19:13 on Tuesday, which was his highest minutes load of the series. That uptick should continue with Craig Berube looking to roll his top guys more as the games get more important.
Key stat: Tavares ranks second on the Leafs with 16 shots in this series.
Game 5 prop prediction
Sanderson over 0.5 points (-118): The 22-year-old defenceman has been Ottawa’s best player in this series.
He’s averaging north of 27 minutes on ice, and he played a major role in the Senators’ shutout win in Game 5.
Sanderson’s best performance, though, was in Game 4, when he played over 30 minutes and scored the game-winning goal in overtime to go along with an earlier assist.
That makes Sanderson 2-3 against this line, but I can’t help but side with his growing momentum as Ottawa continues to play with its back against the wall.
Sanderson had a career-high 57 points this season, which ranked 10th among NHL defencemen.
He’ll be on the ice for around half the game and is an elite playmaker from the back end.
If the Leafs have another poor performance, look for Sanderson and Co. to take advantage at home.
The Senators scored more goals per game at home this season (3.37) than on the road (2.54).
Maple Leafs vs. Senators picks made at 4:27 p.m. ET 04/30/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.