The Toronto Maple Leafs can sweep the Battle of Ontario on Saturday Night.
The pregame narrative: Back-to-back overtime victories from Toronto have the Ottawa Senators on the brink of elimination. Toronto’s top line has been machine-like, and I expect Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies to help put the final nail in Ottawa’s coffin.
Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Senators picks for Game 4 of the opening round.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators picks
Best bet: Knies to record a point (-120)
Knies scored his second goal of the series on Thursday, tying the game at one apiece in the second period.
Was it pretty? No. But playoff goals often aren’t glamorous, and playing on the top power-play affords these kinds of opportunities.
We saw Knies score similarly in the series opener, banging home a rebound on the man advantage to close out a 6-2 win.
The 6-foot-3, 227-pound power forward is a moose in front of the net. He’ll continue to get good PP looks as long as Ottawa stays undisciplined.
And with the series practically out of reach, I could see tempers boiling over and a tight whistle from the referees on Saturday.
Knies is a natural threat to produce at 5-on-5 as well, riding shotgun with Matthews and Mitch Marner.
That line leads the Maple Leafs in chances (27), high-danger chances (seven), and goals (three) this series, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Key stat: Knies has registered a point in four of his last five games dating back to the regular season.
Game 4 prop prediction
Matthews to record an assist (-108): Matthews took a major step back as a scorer this season, finishing the year with 33 goals after burying a league-best 69 in 2023-24.
I won’t blame him too much, though, considering he missed 15 games with a mystery injury that might still be bothering him to some degree. And Toronto’s captain has found other ways to produce, becoming an elite playmaker down the stretch.
Matthews has 24 assists in 30 games since the 4-Nations Face Off, cashing this bet 18 times (60.0%).
He’s logged a helper in every game this series (four total) and has an assist in four straight playoff games dating back to Game 7 against the Boston Bruins last year.
In an ideal world, Matthew will be feeding Knies for a goal, cashing both bets in one go.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators prop picks made at 12:36 p.m. ET 04/25/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.