The Battle of Ontario is back, and the stakes are as high as possible.
The latest: The Atlantic Division-winning Toronto Maple Leafs have home ice against the Ottawa Senators, who are in the playoffs for the first time in the Brady Tkachuk era. Will the Maple Leafs capitalize as favourites, or can the Senators be the latest team to send them packing?
Check out our Senators vs. Maple Leafs NHL playoff betting preview and odds for the series.
Senators vs. Maple Leafs playoff preview
This rivalry was a staple in the early 2000s, when the Maple Leafs and Senators met four times in the Stanley Cup playoffs.
Toronto won each matchup, but a lot has changed since then.
This current iteration of the Maple Leafs knows nothing but playoff heartbreak, with just one series win in the Core Four era.
In fact, Toronto has just one series win since it last beat Ottawa in 2004 … yikes.
The Senators have finally made the dance after a near-decade of disappointments, and now they have a chance to twist the knife against their most bitter rival.
Senators vs. Maple Leafs playoff preview: Series markets
It shouldn’t be a surprise that Toronto is favoured, even with its horrible postseason track record.
The Maple Leafs entered play on April 17 with 106 points (51-26-4), good for second place in the Eastern Conference and fourth in the league.
Ottawa, meanwhile, sits at 95 points (44-30-7) in the East’s first wild-card spot. And Toronto has the upper hand in nearly every statistical category:
| Goals per game | GAA | PP% | PK% | |
| Toronto | 3.25 (seventh) | 2.79 (10th) | 25.0 (seventh) | 78.1 (17th) |
| Ottawa | 2.90 (21st) | 2.80 (11th) | 23.4 (13th) | 77.9 (19th) |
The Leafs are far more experienced, have better game-breakers (more on that later), and will be on home ice. All signs seem to be pointing toward a deep playoff run. But are we really going to step on that rake again?
Here are some additional markets if picking an outright winner didn’t catch your eye:
| Market | Betting odds |
| Maple Leafs -1.5 | +105 |
| Senators +1.5 | -139 |
| Maple Leafs +1.5 | -400 |
| Senators -1.5 | +280 |
| Over 5.5 games | -177 |
| Under 5.5 games | +135 |
| Over 6.5 games | +210 |
| Under 6.5 games | -286 |
Click linked odds below to add selection to your betslip. NHL odds as of 4:30 p.m. ET on 04/17/2025.
A one-sided Battle of Ontario
Ottawa has had Toronto’s number lately, winning five straight games against its rival, all of which came in regulation.
The Maple Leafs haven’t been blown out, but they also haven’t cracked the Senators’ defence, scoring just three goals in three games against them this season.
That should scare Maple Leafs fans, considering the team has scored two or fewer goals in 13 of its last 14 playoff games.
You could argue this is a massive problem, or you could say Toronto is due to break out of that rut. After all, the Leafs averaged the seventh-most goals per game this season.
I wouldn’t expect this series to be a barn-burner, though.
On a 60-minute basis, the Senators rank 12th in 5-on-5 high-danger goals against (1.34) while the Maple Leafs rank seventh (1.27), according to Natural Stat Trick.
Both teams will have to get down and dirty to score some goals.
Senators vs. Maple Leafs preview: Players to watch
This series isn’t lacking starpower. Auston Matthews, Brady Tkachuk, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Tim Stuzle, John Tavares … both teams have some studs.
But in my mind, Toronto has a clear edge. And it better, considering the Core Four eat up 53% of the Maple Leafs’ salary cap.
Marner just cracked 100 points for the first time, Nylander’s 45 goals are the second-most in the league, and Tavares is steadily producing (38 goals, 74 points) in the last year of his contract.
Even Matthews, who played just 66 games in an injury-riddled “down year,” has 77 points — more than any Senator.
Stutzle leads the way for Ottawa with 76 points. No Senator hit the 30-goal mark this year, and that has to be a concern.
Tkachuk (29 goals) would have if he played more than 71 games, to be fair, and he brings a different kind of energy that will be hard for Toronto to match.
I’m curious to see how Matthew Knies factors into this matchup, as the third-year forward isn’t afraid to mix things up and play physically.
Who has the goaltending edge?
In my opinion, goaltending will be the X-factor and decide this series (bold proclamation, I know).
Toronto has been tight-lipped about its plans, but Anthony Stolarz should start every game, as long as he’s healthy and performing.
With a 2.14 GAA (third in NHL) and .926 SV% (first), that seems like a no-brainer. Stolarz also posted otherworldly numbers down the stretch to help Toronto clinch the division:
- 8-0 record since March 20
- 1.40 GAA
- .950 SV%
- 3 shutouts
If he can stay that hot, the Leafs could win this series in five or fewer. But Stolarz has never played in the playoffs and just logged a career-high 34 starts, so it will be interesting to see how he responds to the pressure and a near-bi-nightly cadence.
Then you have Ottawa’s Linus Ulmark, who rebounded from a tough start and went on a similar heater to close out the season:
- 6-1 record since March 22
- 2.00 GAA
- .928 SV%
- One shutout
His season-long numbers aren’t anywhere near as impressive as Stolarz’s, though, and the Swede has some serious playoff demons (nine starts, 3.58 GAA, .887 SV%).
Senators vs. Maple Leafs: Series prediction
My pick: Maple Leafs -1.5 series handicap (+105)
My prediction has a lot to do with the goalies.
Ullmark’s playoff history is concerning, to say the least, and I am bullish on Stolarz carrying his play into the postseason.
Toronto’s netminder has been fantastic all year. In addition to owning the best SV% and third-best GAA, he’s saved the fourth-most goals above expected (25.8), according to Money Puck.
He also had this to say about the series: “It’s gonna be a bloodbath. Gonna be a little bit of war. So, we’ll be ready.”
The Maple Leafs have added a good amount of “snot”, as Brad Treliving likes to put it, to their lineup.
Brandon Tanev, Brandon Carlo and Oliver Ekman-Larsson bring size and physicality to a completely re-worked defensive corps, which has clogged the middle of the ice and limited high-danger chances.
But in the end, it will come down to who can score more, and I trust Toronto’s big guns even with their recent shortcomings.
Matthews, Nylander and Marner are all in their primes, and John Tavares has turned back the clock with a 38-goal season. Matthew Knies has become a legit game-breaker in his third season.
Ottawa doesn’t have anyone that moves the needle like that, and I can’t picture the Sens out-scoring the Leafs by committee against Stolarz.
Senators vs. Maple Leafs predictions made at 3:00 p.m. on 04/17/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.