The Toronto Maple Leafs have their first chance to knock out the Ottawa Senators on Saturday night.
The pregame narrative: Toronto can advance to the second round with a win. I’m betting on the squad, as slight underdogs, to do just that. Elsewhere, I’m taking the under as I expect both teams to be tense in an elimination game, but I like Mitch Marner‘s chances of scoring a point.
Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Senators playoff SGP predictions for Game 4 on April 26.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators predictions
Parlay: Maple Leafs ML | Under 5.5 goals | Marner to score 1+ points (+390)
Maple Leafs moneyline (-104): Outside of a lopsided Game 1 victory, this series has been extremely tight.
Toronto needed overtime in Games 2 and 3 to beat Ottawa, continuing a trend of close playoff victories for the team.
Nine of the Maple Leafs’ last 10 playoff victories have been by just one goal. Furthermore, six of those have come in overtime.
So while the juicier odds of backing Toronto’s puck line or 60-minute moneyline may be appealing, bettors have been warned that the Maple Leafs’ track record suggests otherwise.
The reason why I’m picking Toronto to win this contest boils down to experience. The Maple Leafs are in their ninth consecutive postseason run; the Senators are in their first since 2017.
Ottawa didn’t handle its initial playoff test well, losing 6-2 to Toronto. I don’t expect it to be great in a nerve-filled elimination game. Bet on Toronto to prevail.
NHL SGP legs
Under 5.5 goals (-103): Ottawa has kept the last couple of games close by limiting Toronto’s shot totals and largely playing mistake-free hockey. I don’t expect the Sens to deviate from the plan.
The Senators were guilty of racking up 38 penalty minutes in Game 1. Since then, they combined for just 12 penalty minutes in Games 2 and 3. Toronto has played a fairly clean brand of hockey, only accumulating 20 penalty minutes in its last two outings.
If power-play opportunities remain limited, it’s difficult to see either team racking up goals.
The Maple Leafs have been able to rely on stellar goaltending all series long. Anthony Stolarz has a .926 save percentage through three outings.
Marner to score 1+ points (-275): Offensive fireworks may be minimal, but I expect Marner to continue finding the score sheet.
The Maple Leafs winger has produced a point in all three games of this series, totalling six ahead of Game 4.
Marner has consistently performed well against the Sens throughout his career. He has 46 points in 41 career matchups (including playoffs).
The playmaking forward enters Saturday tied for third in postseason assists (five) and sixth in playoff points (six).
Maple Leafs vs. Senators predictions made at 10:00 a.m. ET 04/26/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.